Harrogate Town - Bury prediction 20 October 2026

The Harrogate Town vs Bury prediction for this FA Cup replay on October 20, 2026, points towards a home win. Based on form and the odds, Harrogate Town enters the match as the favorite with an estimated 55% win probability. Kick-off is set for 19:45 at Harrogate Town's ground.

Team Form

Harrogate Town's recent form has been excellent, recording four wins and a draw in their last five matches. They come into this fixture after a 1-1 draw away at Bury in the initial FA Cup tie on October 17. Prior to that, they secured three consecutive National League away wins, beating Woking 1-0, Hartlepool United 1-0, and thrashing Eastleigh 4-1 at home. Their only home game of this spell, a 3-0 victory against AFC Hornchurch, highlights a strong offense.

Bury's recent results are more mixed, with two wins, two draws, and one loss. Their last five results include a 1-1 home draw with Harrogate Town in the FA Cup and a 0-0 home stalemate against Leek Town in the Northern Premier League. Their away form has been inconsistent: a 3-2 win at Alfreton Town was followed by a 1-0 loss at Stockton Town.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met just once before, and that match ended in a draw. The head-to-head record shows 0 wins for Harrogate Town, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Bury. This single encounter was the FA Cup match just three days ago on October 17, 2026, which finished 1-1 at Bury's home ground. The result forces this replay, with Harrogate Town now enjoying home advantage.

League Table Positions

While the exact table positions are not provided, context from recent schedules shows both clubs are competing at a similar non-league level. Harrogate Town plays in the National League, while Bury operates in the Northern Premier League. This one-tier difference, combined with Harrogate Town's far superior recent goal-scoring record, suggests they will have a competitive edge in this replay.

Win Probability: Harrogate Town or Bury?

After a detailed calculation based on odds, form, and the home advantage, the win probabilities are clear. Harrogate Town has a 55% chance of winning, the draw sits at 25%, and Bury has a 20% chance. This assessment starts from the bookmaker odds. The average inverse probability across bookmakers tilts heavily towards Harrogate Town. This base is further adjusted by their dominant 'WWWW' form line on their supplied schedule, compared to Bury’s 'DDWLW', and the significant fact that the fixture has shifted to Harrogate Town's ground. The data strongly suggests Harrogate Town is the side more likely to win in regular time.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Harrogate Town as the firm favorite for this FA Cup clash. The available 1X2 odds have Harrogate Town's home win as low as 1.62, with a draw around 2.40, and a Bury away win as high as 4.33. Based on these stats and the home side's formidable form, the data-driven Harrogate Town vs Bury prediction is a home victory. The strong likelihood of goals, given Harrogate Town's attacking output, also points toward a result that would not require extra time.