Deportivo Maldonado Reserves - CA Penarol Montevideo Reservers prediction 28 September 2026

This Deportivo Maldonado Reserves vs CA Penarol Montevideo Reservers prediction previews the Primera Division Reserve League match on Sep 28, 2026 at 19:00 in Uruguay. Based on the supplied 1X2 odds, recent form and the only head-to-head result, CA Penarol Montevideo Reservers is the narrow favorite with a 40% win probability, while Deportivo Maldonado Reserves has 29% and the draw is 31%.

Team Form

Deportivo Maldonado Reserves have collected 10 points from their last five Primera Division Reserve League matches. Their sequence reads W, D, L, W, W. On Sep 21 they beat River Plate Montevideo Reserves 4-1, and on Aug 24 they defeated Montevideo Wanderers Reserves 3-0. The negative result in that block was a 0-2 home loss to Juventud de las Piedras Reserves on Sep 7, with an earlier 1-1 draw at Racing Montevideo Reserves on Sep 14 and a 2-1 win at Liverpool Montevideo Reserves on Aug 31. Across that five-match run, Deportivo Maldonado Reserves scored 10 goals and conceded 5.

CA Penarol Montevideo Reservers are unbeaten in five matches, with results D, W, W, D, W. They drew 0-0 at Club Oriental de La Paz Reserves on Sep 21 and 2-2 at Defensor Sporting Reserves on Aug 31. The three wins were 3-1 at Nacional Montevideo Reserves on Sep 14, 2-0 at home against Boston River Reserves on Sep 7, and 1-0 at home against Albion Montevideo Reserves on Aug 24. They scored 8 goals and conceded 3 in that same five-match period.

Head-to-Head Record

The supplied head-to-head record contains one match from May 25, 2026, in the Primera Division Reserve League. CA Penarol Montevideo Reservers won that game 1-0. The H2H totals therefore stand at 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win, so the away side holds the only positive H2H result in this small sample.

Win Probability: Deportivo Maldonado Reserves or CA Penarol Montevideo Reservers — Who Will Win?

Deportivo Maldonado Reserves has a 29% chance of winning, the draw is at 31%, and CA Penarol Montevideo Reservers has a 40% chance. The calculation starts with inverse 1X2 odds, normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, then adjusts for current form and the head-to-head result. The away side’s five-match unbeaten run and the 1-0 H2H win push the model toward CA Penarol Montevideo Reservers, while Deportivo Maldonado Reserves' three wins in five keep their percentage at 29%.

Odds & Match Prediction

The listed pre-match 1X2 odds show a home win between 2.85 and 3.17, the draw between 2.20 and 3.44, and an away win between 2.12 and 2.65. The shorter end of the away odds, especially the later listed prices, aligns with bookmakers seeing CA Penarol Montevideo Reservers as the favorite in this fixture.

Based on the stats, CA Penarol Montevideo Reservers is the more likely match outcome with a 40% win probability. The draw is also strong at 31%, so for betting tips a draw-no-bet or double chance on the away side may be a safer angle than a straight win. The home team has enough scoring output to keep the contest competitive, but the away side’s consistency gives it the edge.