Juventud de Las Piedras - CA Penarol Montevideo prediction 24 October 2026

The Juventud de Las Piedras vs CA Penarol Montevideo prediction for October 24, 2026, shapes up as a fascinating Primera Division contest. The match kicks off at 20:00, and CA Penarol Montevideo enters as the clear favorite with a 58% win probability, largely thanks to their superior head-to-head record and overall pedigree.

Team Form

Juventud de Las Piedras comes into this match with a mixed bag of results in their last five outings, posting two wins, two draws, and one loss (W, D, D, W, L). Their most recent match was a 2-0 defeat away to CA Progreso on October 17. Prior to that, they secured a solid 2-0 home victory against Racing Club Montevideo on October 11, followed by back-to-back goalless draws against Boston River (away) and Club Atletico Cerro (home).

CA Penarol Montevideo's recent form is almost identical, also recording two wins, two draws, and one loss (W, D, D, W, L). They are coming off a 1-0 away loss to Liverpool Montevideo on October 18. Before that, they drew 1-1 at home with CA Progreso and beat Racing Club Montevideo 1-0 on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H record heavily favors the away side. In the last three meetings, CA Penarol Montevideo has won twice, with one match ending in a draw. Juventud de Las Piedras is yet to register a win. The most recent clash, on April 21, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw. However, Penarol won 1-0 in September 2025 and secured a dominant 2-0 away victory at Juventud in March 2025.

League Table Positions

Based on the available Primera Division standings, which are yet to show any matches played for the current phase, CA Penarol Montevideo sits at rank 1 and Juventud de Las Piedras is listed at rank 9. While no points or goals for/against data are available to dissect, Penarol's top seeding suggests they are the stronger side on paper.

Win Probability: Juventud de Las Piedras or CA Penarol Montevideo?

After normalizing the available bookmaker odds to remove the margin, we calculate the true probabilities for this match. CA Penarol Montevideo has a 58% chance of winning. A draw is at 28%, and a home victory for Juventud de Las Piedras sits at just 14%. This assessment is driven by Penarol’s unblemished head-to-head record, their top rank in the standings, and a slightly more consistent away form, despite the initial home odds being the longest.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced this match competitively. The best available odds for a Juventud de Las Piedras win are 4.35, a draw is offered at 2.20, and a CA Penarol Montevideo away win can be found at 2.38. These odds clearly show that the market sees CA Penarol Montevideo as the favorite, with an implied probability that aligns with our deeper statistical analysis. Based on the stats, the most likely match outcome is an away win for CA Penarol Montevideo.