Boston River Reserves - CA Progreso Reserves prediction 13 October 2026

Boston River Reserves vs CA Progreso Reserves prediction: the Primera Division Reserve League clash on October 13, 2026 at 14:00 sees CA Progreso Reserves as the favourite, with a 42% chance of winning according to our analysis. Boston River Reserves hold a 30% win probability, while the draw is rated at 28%.

Team Form

Boston River Reserves have alternated wins and losses in their last five matches, recording W L W L sequence from the most recent: a 0-3 away defeat to Defensor Sporting Reserves (Oct5), a 1-0 home win over Albion Montevideo Reserves (Sep29), a 2-3 away loss at Central Espanol Reserve (Sep21), a 4-2 home victory against Cerro Largo Reserve (Sep14), and a 0-2 away loss to CA Penarol Montevideo Reserves (Sep7). Their home form is stronger – they have won their last two home outings, both with clean sheets in one of them.

CA Progreso Reserves come into this match off a 0-0 away draw at Cerro Largo Reserve (Oct8). Their overall last five results are D,W,W,D,L: a 2-1 home win over Liverpool Montevideo Reserves (Oct5), an impressive 2-0 away win at Defensor Sporting Reserves (Sep28), a 1-1 home draw with Montevideo Wanderers Reserves (Sep21), and a 1-3 away defeat at Albion Montevideo Reserves (Sep15). Away from home they have collected 7 points from the last 12 available (W2 D1 L1), showing resilience on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five meetings between these sides, each team has won once and three matches ended in draws. The most recent H2H results are:

• Jun 8, 2026 – CA Progreso Reserves 0-0 Boston River Reserves
• Nov 4, 2025 – CA Progreso Reserves 1-4 Boston River Reserves
• May 5, 2025 – Boston River Reserves 0-1 CA Progreso Reserves
• Nov 11, 2024 – CA Progreso Reserves 2-2 Boston River Reserves
• Oct 5, 2021 – Boston River Reserves 0-0 CA Progreso Reserves

Notably, CA Progreso won the last encounter at Boston River’s ground (0-1 in May 2025), and both fixtures at that venue have ended without a home win in the last two attempts.

Win Probability: Boston River Reserves or CA Progreso Reserves?

We assign the following outcome probabilities: Boston River Reserves win – 30%, draw – 28%, CA Progreso Reserves win – 42%. The calculation uses the inverse of the available 1X2 odds, normalised to eliminate the bookmaker margin, and then adjusted for recent form and head-to-head trends. The raw market implied about a 43% away win probability, which we slightly offset because Boston River have won their last two home games, while CA Progreso’s superior away form (unbeaten in three of four) and the historical tendency for draws in this fixture push the draw above 26%. Overall, CA Progreso Reserves are the more likely winners, but the match is far from a one-sided affair.

Boston River Reserves vs CA Progreso Reserves Prediction & Odds

Bookmakers’ 1X2 odds show CA Progreso Reserves as favourites. One bookmaker prices a home win at 2.80, a draw at 3.30, and an away win at 2.15; another lists 3.10, 3.50, and 2.00 respectively. The best odds for a CA Progreso Reserves victory stand at 2.00. Based on the stats, our final prediction leans towards an away win for CA Progreso Reserves, though the draw is a strong alternative given the head-to-head pattern of three draws in the last five meetings.