CA Progreso Reserves - Liverpool Montevideo Reserves prediction 5 October 2026

Our CA Progreso Reserves vs Liverpool Montevideo Reserves prediction for the Primera Division Reserve League clash on Oct 5, 2026, at 19:00, points to an away win, with Liverpool Montevideo Reserves holding a 45% chance of victory. The hosts have struggled for consistency, while the visitors boast a dominant head-to-head record and better recent form.

Team Form

CA Progreso Reserves have managed just one win in their last five matches (W1 D1 L3). They secured a 2-0 away victory at Defensor Sporting Reserves, drew 1-1 at home to Montevideo Wanderers Reserves, and suffered three defeats: 1-3 at Albion Montevideo Reserves, 0-4 at home to La Luz FC Reserves, and 0-4 at Central Espanol Reserve. The team has conceded 12 goals in this period, highlighting defensive frailties.

Liverpool Montevideo Reserves have shown stronger form with three wins in their last five outings (W3 L2). They beat Montevideo Wanderers Reserves 1-0 at home, lost 0-3 away to La Luz FC Reserves, defeated Colon FC Reserve 3-0 at home, won 1-0 at Montevideo City Torque Reserves, and fell 1-2 at home to Deportivo Maldonado Reserves. The visitors have kept three clean sheets in those five games.

Head-to-Head Record

In 16 previous meetings, Liverpool Montevideo Reserves lead with 9 wins to CA Progreso Reserves' 4, with 3 draws. The last five encounters: Liverpool Montevideo Reserves 3-2 (Jun 2, 2026), CA Progreso Reserves 3-0 (Sep 18, 2025), 0-0 draw (Sep 1, 2025), CA Progreso Reserves 2-0 (Jul 14, 2025), and 0-0 draw (Mar 4, 2025). Although the home side has won two of these recent five, the overall historical advantage firmly belongs to the away team.

Win Probability: CA Progreso Reserves or Liverpool Montevideo Reserves?

We calculate the win probabilities using bookmaker odds as a base, then adjust for form and head-to-head data. The initial implied probabilities from odds (home 2.37, draw 2.30, away 2.95) were 35.3% for a home win, 36.4% for a draw, and 28.3% for an away win. Given Liverpool Montevideo Reserves' superior H2H record (9 wins to 4) and better recent form (3 wins in 5 vs 1 win in 5), we shift the probabilities in their favor. Our final assessment: CA Progreso Reserves has a 30% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Liverpool Montevideo Reserves has a 45% chance. The visitors are the more likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varying odds for this fixture. One bookmaker lists CA Progreso Reserves at 2.37, the draw at 2.30, and Liverpool Montevideo Reserves at 2.95. Other odds sets show similar ranges, with the away win generally priced higher. For betting tips, the away win offers value considering the head-to-head dominance. Based on the stats, Liverpool Montevideo Reserves is predicted to win, though a draw remains a possibility given the competitive nature of the league.