Liverpool Montevideo - CA Progreso prediction 3 October 2026

Liverpool Montevideo vs CA Progreso prediction for the Primera Division match on Oct 3, 2026 at 15:00. Based on the available odds, team form and head-to-head record, Liverpool Montevideo are the likelier winners with a 48% win probability.

Team Form

Liverpool Montevideo come into this match with two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five Primera Division matches. They won 2-1 away at Central Espanol on Sep 27, drew 0-0 at home with Racing Club Montevideo on Sep 21, lost 3-1 away at Montevideo City Torque on Sep 14, beat Boston River 1-0 at home on Sep 6 and drew 1-1 away at Cerro Largo on Aug 30.

CA Progreso have won four of their last five matches. They beat Racing Club Montevideo 2-1 at home on Sep 26, won 2-1 away at Boston River on Sep 19, lost 3-1 at home to Club Atletico Cerro on Sep 13, and won 1-0 away at Albion Montevideo on both Sep 7 and Sep 5.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record is six Liverpool Montevideo wins, eleven draws and four CA Progreso wins. In the last five meetings, Liverpool Montevideo won three and the other two ended level. Those results were a 3-3 draw on Mar 31, 2026, a 0-0 draw on Mar 29, 2026, a 3-1 Liverpool Montevideo home win on Oct 26, 2025, a 2-0 Liverpool Montevideo away win on Apr 27, 2025 and a 2-1 Liverpool Montevideo home win on Nov 3, 2024.

CA Progreso have not beaten Liverpool Montevideo in any of the last five head-to-head matches, while eleven of the twenty-one total meetings have finished as draws.

League Table Positions

The supplied Primera Division standings list Liverpool Montevideo in 7th place with 0 points from 0 matches played. CA Progreso are not shown in the available standings data, and all listed clubs are shown with 0 matches played, so no direct points-gap comparison can be made.

Win Probability: Liverpool Montevideo or CA Progreso?

Using the average 1X2 odds as the base and removing the bookmaker margin gives baseline probabilities of about 42% for Liverpool Montevideo, 39% for the draw and 19% for CA Progreso. The final adjusted win probability is:

• Liverpool Montevideo win: 48%
• Draw: 30%
• CA Progreso win: 22%

Liverpool Montevideo has a 48% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and CA Progreso has a 22% chance. Liverpool Montevideo are the more likely winner, but the draw is also a strong consideration because this fixture has a long history of stalemates.

Liverpool Montevideo vs CA Progreso Prediction & Odds

Bookmakers see Liverpool Montevideo as the favorite. The home win odds range from 2.08 to 2.20, the draw sits between 2.25 and 2.30, and the CA Progreso away win is priced between 4.40 and 5.50.

Final prediction: based on the stats, the most likely match outcome is a Liverpool Montevideo win. For betting tips, the safest single-result angle is Liverpool Montevideo to win, but the head-to-head draw rate means the draw should not be ignored.