CA Tigre Reserves - Gimnasia La Plata Reserves prediction 29 September 2026

CA Tigre Reserves vs Gimnasia La Plata Reserves prediction: the Liga Profesional Reserves match on Sep 29, 2026, at 19:00 sees Gimnasia La Plata Reserves as the favorite with a 40% win probability. CA Tigre Reserves have a 33% chance, while the draw is at 27%. This forecast is based on odds, recent form, and head-to-head data.

Team Form

CA Tigre Reserves have struggled recently, picking up just one win in their last five matches (W1 D1 L3). Their last outing was a 2-1 away defeat to Defensa y Justicia Reserves on Sep 23. Before that, they suffered a heavy 5-1 loss at Union Santa Fe Reserves. The only positive result in that run was a 2-0 home victory over Atletico Tucuman Reserves on Sep 10. A 2-2 draw at Godoy Cruz Reserves and a 3-1 home loss to Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza Reserves complete the picture. The team has conceded 13 goals in these five games, highlighting defensive issues.

Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, by contrast, come into this match in strong form with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five (W3 D1 L1). They are on a two-game winning streak at home, beating Estudiantes La Plata Reserves 2-0 and San Lorenzo de Almagro Reserves 2-0. The only defeat in this period was a narrow 1-0 home loss to River Plate Reserves. An impressive 4-1 away win at Racing Club Avellaneda Reserves and a 0-0 draw at Velez Sarsfield Reserves underline their solidity on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once before, on Apr 28, 2026, in the same competition. In that fixture, CA Tigre Reserves won 2-1 away at Gimnasia La Plata Reserves. The head-to-head record therefore stands at 1 win for Tigre, 0 draws, and 0 wins for Gimnasia.

CA Tigre Reserves vs Gimnasia La Plata Reserves Prediction: Win Probability

Based on the available data, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• CA Tigre Reserves win: 33%
• Draw: 27%
• Gimnasia La Plata Reserves win: 40%

The calculation starts from the bookmakers' odds (home 2.62, draw 3.30, away 2.40). After removing the margin, the fair probabilities were adjusted to reflect the teams' recent form and the head-to-head result. Gimnasia La Plata Reserves' superior form (three wins in five) and strong away performances outweigh Tigre's home advantage and their single H2H victory. The away side is the more likely winner, but the match remains competitive with a significant chance of a home upset or a draw.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match odds from bookmakers show Gimnasia La Plata Reserves as the favorite: an away win is priced at 2.40, a home win at 2.62, and the draw at 3.30. These odds align with the form guide, where the visitors have been more consistent. Our prediction, based on the stats, is a win for Gimnasia La Plata Reserves. However, given Tigre's H2H success and the unpredictable nature of reserve football, a draw cannot be ruled out.