Cadiz - Leganes prediction 3 October 2026

The Cadiz vs Leganes prediction for October 3, 2026, sees two Segunda sides in contrasting form clash at the Estadio Ramón de Carranza. Based on our win probability analysis, Leganes holds a slight edge with a 36% chance to win, while Cadiz has a 34% probability and the draw sits at 30%.

Team Form

Cadiz come into this fixture in poor shape. Their last five home matches (all competitions) have yielded no wins: two draws and three losses. They drew 1-1 at Tenerife on Sep 26, lost 1-2 to Girona on Sep 19, fell 0-1 to Las Palmas on Sep 12, lost 2-3 at Almeria on Sep 6, and drew 1-1 with Valladolid on Aug 30. That run includes just three goals scored in their last three home games.

Leganes, on the other hand, have been strong on the road. Their last five away results read W, L, D, W, W. They beat Granada CF 3-2 on Sep 20, lost 0-2 at Tenerife on Sep 13, drew 0-0 at Las Palmas on Sep 4, won 1-0 at Eldense on Aug 29, and won 1-0 at Real Oviedo on Aug 22. That’s three wins, one draw, and one defeat, with two clean sheets.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last two meetings, Cadiz are unbeaten against Leganes. The most recent clash on May 24, 2026, ended in a 3-0 home win for Cadiz. Earlier, on Aug 22, 2025, Leganes drew 1-1 at home. Overall, the head-to-head record shows 1 Cadiz win, 1 draw, and 0 Leganes wins in these two encounters.

League Table Positions

Leganes sit 8th in the Segunda standings with 11 points from 6 matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). They have scored 6 goals and conceded 5. Cadiz are outside the top 12, indicating a slower start to the season. In the away standings, Leganes rank 8th with 5 points from 4 games (1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss). Cadiz’s home form is not among the top eight, underlining their struggles at the Estadio Ramón de Carranza.

Win Probability: Cadiz or Leganes?

We calculated the win probability using the latest odds (home 2.52, draw 3.10, away 2.72) as a base, then adjusted for recent form and head-to-head records. The inverse odds gave an initial estimate of Cadiz 36.5%, draw 29.7%, Leganes 33.8%. However, Cadiz’s five-match winless home streak and Leganes’ three wins in their last five away matches shift the balance. Our final probabilities are: Cadiz 34%, draw 30%, Leganes 36%. Leganes is the most likely winner, but the match is too close to call with high confidence.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced Cadiz at 2.52 to win, the draw at 3.10, and a Leganes victory at 2.72. These odds reflect a tight contest, with Cadiz as the nominal favourite. However, based on the stats, Leganes’ away form gives them a real chance. Our Cadiz vs Leganes prediction is a low-scoring affair, likely under 2.5 goals, with Leganes to edge it. Betting tips: the draw no bet on Leganes could offer value, or consider the double chance X2.