Tenerife - Cadiz prediction 26 September 2026

Welcome to the Tenerife vs Cadiz prediction for the Segunda clash on Sep 26, 2026, at 17:30. Tenerife enters the match as the clear favorite, with a 52% win probability based on form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, while Cadiz’s recent struggles make an away victory unlikely at 18%. Read on for full betting tips, odds, and team news.

Team Form

Tenerife’s last five matches show a mixed but resilient run (L-W-D-L-W). They picked up a crucial 2-0 home win over Leganes on Sep 13 and a 1-0 success against Almeria on Aug 23. The heavy 5-0 loss at Castellon (Sep 19) was a setback, but at Estadio Heliodoro Rodriguez Lopez, they have been solid, with two wins in three home league games this season.

Cadiz arrives in poor form, with three consecutive defeats followed by two draws (L-L-L-D-D). They lost at home to Girona (1-2) and Las Palmas (0-1) and were beaten 3-2 at Almeria. The draws against Valladolid (1-1) and Eldense (2-2) showed some fight, but the team has yet to win in five outings.

Head-to-Head Record

Tenerife historically dominates this fixture. In 17 previous meetings, Tenerife has 8 wins, 8 draws, and Cadiz only 1 win. The most recent Segunda encounter ended 2-1 to Tenerife at home on Mar 23, 2025. A friendly in August 2026 finished 2-2, but competitive matches consistently favor the hosts.

League Table Positions

Tenerife sits 11th in the Segunda overall standings with 10 points from 6 games (3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, goals 7:8). At home, they rank 8th with 6 points from 3 games (2 wins, 1 loss, 3 goals scored, 1 conceded) — a solid home record. Cadiz is outside the top 12, indicating a difficult start to the campaign. Their away form has been particularly weak, contributing to their low position.

Win Probability: Tenerife or Cadiz?

After analyzing the bookmakers’ odds and adjusting for team form and head-to-head stats, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Tenerife 52%, draw 30%, Cadiz 18%. The odds imply a home win chance around 44%, but Tenerife’s strong home performances (only 1 goal conceded in 3 home league games) and Cadiz’s five-match winless run push the probability higher. A draw remains a plausible outcome given the history of stalemates in this fixture (8 in 17 games), but Tenerife’s superiority on home soil makes a home win the most likely result.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds vary: home win 1.80–1.92, draw 2.00–3.30, away win 4.20–4.80. The wide spread on the draw suggests some uncertainty, but the clear favorite is Tenerife. Based on the stats, our Tenerife vs Cadiz prediction is a narrow home win, perhaps 2-1 or 1-0. Cadiz’s attack may find the net, but Tenerife’s defensive solidity at home should see them through.