AD Municipal Santa Ana - Cariari Pococi prediction 4 October 2026

The AD Municipal Santa Ana vs Cariari Pococi prediction for October 4, 2026, points to a tight Liga de Ascenso contest at Estadio de Piedades. Based on the stats, AD Municipal Santa Ana has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Cariari Pococi holds a 20% win probability. The match kicks off at 18:00 local time, and bookmakers see it as an evenly matched affair.

Team Form

AD Municipal Santa Ana's recent form has been inconsistent. Their last five results read L, L, W, D, W. They suffered back-to-back away defeats against Carmelita (1-0) and Aserri/Once de Abril (1-0) but bounced back with a 2-1 home win over Guadalupe FC on September 13. A goalless draw at Cariari Pococi on September 10 and a 2-1 win at Futbol Consultants Desamparados Moravia on September 5 complete the picture.

Cariari Pococi's form shows more draws: D, W, L, D, D. They drew 1-1 at home with CS Uruguay de Coronado on September 29 and beat Pitbulls FC 2-1 at home on September 24. A 1-0 away loss to Pitbulls FC on September 22 was followed by a 1-1 home draw with Carmelita on September 13 and the 0-0 stalemate with AD Municipal Santa Ana on September 10.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these sides is balanced: 4 home wins, 6 draws, and 6 away wins across 16 meetings. The last five encounters have been dominated by draws: four ended level, including the most recent on September 10, 2026 (0-0). The only exception was a 4-1 home win for Cariari Pococi on January 18, 2026. The previous three meetings all finished 1-1 or 0-0.

League Table Positions

In the overall Liga de Ascenso standings, AD Municipal Santa Ana sits 5th with 15 points from 8 matches (5 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). Cariari Pococi is 6th with 13 points from 8 matches (3 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss). At home, AD Municipal Santa Ana has a perfect record: 3 wins from 3 games, scoring 6 and conceding 2. Cariari Pococi's away form is solid: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from 4 trips, with 3 goals scored and 2 conceded.

Win Probability: AD Municipal Santa Ana or Cariari Pococi?

AD Municipal Santa Ana has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Cariari Pococi has a 20% chance. The calculation starts from the bookmaker odds (all 1.12), which imply equal 33.3% raw probabilities. Adjusting for the home side's perfect home record (3 wins, 9 points) and higher league position, their chances rise significantly. Cariari Pococi's resilience—only one loss all season—and the head-to-head trend of four draws in the last five meetings push the draw probability above the away win. Therefore, AD Municipal Santa Ana is the more likely winner, but a draw is a strong possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available odds show a home win at 1.12, a draw at 1.12, and an away win at 1.12. These equal odds reflect a market that sees no clear favorite. Based on the stats, AD Municipal Santa Ana's home strength gives them the edge, but Cariari Pococi's ability to grind out draws cannot be ignored. The most probable outcome is a home win, yet a low-scoring draw is a very realistic alternative.