Cariari Pococi - CS Uruguay de Coronado prediction 29 September 2026

Our Cariari Pococi vs CS Uruguay de Coronado prediction for this Liga de Ascenso match on Sep 29, 2026, points to a home win with a 55% probability. Cariari Pococi enters the contest as the clear favorite based on league standings, head-to-head dominance, and home advantage. Kick-off is at 02:00 local time in Costa Rica.

Team Form

Cariari Pococi's recent form has been inconsistent but resilient. In their last five matches, they recorded one win, one loss, and three draws (W, L, D, D, D). The most recent result was a 2-1 home victory over Pitbulls FC on Sep 24. Prior to that, they lost 0-1 away to the same opponent and drew three consecutive matches against Carmelita (1-1), AD Municipal Santa Ana (0-0), and Aserrí/Once de Abril (1-1).

CS Uruguay de Coronado has struggled for consistency, with two wins and three losses in their last five outings (L, L, W, W, L). Their latest match ended in a heavy 0-6 away defeat to Carmelita on Sep 18. Before that, they lost 0-1 at home to Aserrí/Once de Abril, beat Guadalupe FC 1-0 away, and edged Futbol Consultants Desamparados Moravia 1-0 at home. The away form is a concern, with three defeats in the last five road games.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical record heavily favors Cariari Pococi. In 26 previous meetings, Cariari Pococi has won 13, CS Uruguay de Coronado 6, and 7 ended in draws. The most recent encounter on Aug 8, 2026, saw Cariari Pococi win 1-0 away. In the last five H2H matches, Cariari Pococi won twice, CS Uruguay once, and there were two draws. Notably, the last match at Cariari Pococi's home ground ended in a 6-1 rout on Nov 2, 2025.

League Table Positions

In the Liga de Ascenso overall standings, Cariari Pococi sits 7th with 12 points from 7 matches (3 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss). CS Uruguay de Coronado is 11th with 7 points from 8 games (2 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses). The gap in points per game and goal difference (Cariari +2 vs CS Uruguay -9) underscores the home side's superiority. Cariari Pococi also boasts a strong away record (3rd in the away table), suggesting solid overall form, while CS Uruguay's away results have been poor.

Win Probability: Cariari Pococi or CS Uruguay de Coronado?

After analyzing bookmaker odds, recent form, head-to-head history, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Cariari Pococi win: 55%
• Draw: 25%
• CS Uruguay de Coronado win: 20%

The odds implied a home win probability of around 49% after removing the bookmaker margin, but Cariari Pococi's home advantage, dominant H2H record (13 wins in 26 meetings), and higher league standing justify an upward adjustment. CS Uruguay's poor away form and negative goal difference reduce their chances significantly. The draw probability remains moderate given Cariari's recent run of three draws in five games.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Cariari Pococi as the clear favorite. The average odds across multiple bookies are approximately 1.68 for a home win, 2.35 for the draw, and 4.45 for an away victory. The best available odds reach 1.65 for Cariari Pococi, reflecting strong market confidence. Based on the stats, our final Cariari Pococi vs CS Uruguay de Coronado prediction is a home win. The combination of superior league position, historical dominance, and the visitors' travel struggles makes Cariari Pococi the most likely winner.