Carmelita - Guadalupe FC prediction 10 October 2026

Our Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC prediction for the Liga de Ascenso match on October 10, 2026, gives the home side a 45% chance of victory. With Carmelita in stronger form and higher in the league table, they are the favorites to win this Costa Rican second-tier clash.

Team Form

Carmelita's Recent Results

Carmelita come into this match with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings. They scored 12 goals and conceded just 3 in that span, including a 6-0 thrashing of CS Uruguay de Coronado and a 3-0 away win at Futbol Consultants Desamparados Moravia. Their only defeat was a 1-2 home loss to Pitbulls FC on September 7.

Guadalupe FC's Recent Results

Guadalupe FC have struggled, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. They managed a 3-2 away win at Aserri/Once de Abril on October 4, but suffered heavy defeats like a 0-3 home loss to Futbol Consultants Desamparados Moravia. They have scored just 6 goals and conceded 10 in this period.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record between these two sides is evenly balanced: 8 wins for Carmelita, 8 wins for Guadalupe FC, and 2 draws. However, the most recent meeting on August 25, 2026, saw Carmelita secure a 1-0 away victory in the Liga de Ascenso. That result gives them a psychological edge going into this fixture.

League Table Positions

In the Liga de Ascenso overall standings, Carmelita sit 6th with 15 points from 10 matches (4 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses). Guadalupe FC are 11th with 9 points (2 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses). Carmelita have a goal difference of +8, while Guadalupe FC are at -6. At home, Carmelita have been inconsistent with a record of 2-1-3, but Guadalupe FC’s away form is slightly better at 2-2-1. Still, the 6-point gap and superior goal difference highlight Carmelita’s advantage.

Win Probability: Carmelita or Guadalupe?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Carmelita win: 45%
• Draw: 30%
• Guadalupe FC win: 25%

The bookmakers’ average odds of 2.36 for a home win imply a 37% chance, but Carmelita’s strong recent form (three wins in five) and higher league standing push that probability higher. Guadalupe FC’s poor run of three losses in five matches reduces their chances. The draw remains a plausible outcome given the historical evenness of the fixture, but Carmelita are the more likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

The average odds across major bookmakers are: Carmelita win at 2.36, draw at 2.64, and Guadalupe FC win at 2.99. These odds reflect the market’s view of Carmelita as the favorite. Our Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC prediction is a home win, based on the stats. While Guadalupe FC have shown some resilience on the road, Carmelita’s attacking form and the recent head-to-head result tip the scales in their favor.