Estrela Amadora - Casa Pia prediction 24 October 2026

The Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia prediction for the Primeira Liga clash on October 24, 2026, points towards a home victory at the Estádio José Gomes. Based on form, head-to-head, and league standings, Estrela Amadora has a 48% win probability, while Casa Pia holds a 25% chance of an upset.

Team Form

Estrela Amadora's recent form shows inconsistency with a pattern of W, L, L, D, W in their last five matches across all competitions. In the Primeira Liga, they secured a notable 2-1 home win against Braga on September 10, but suffered a 0-2 home loss to Academico Viseu on September 20. Their latest away fixture resulted in a 1-0 defeat at Arouca on October 11. Casa Pia enters this match with a L, W, L, D, L form line. Their recent away matches include a 2-1 win at Estoril Praia on September 20 and a 0-0 draw at Vitoria Guimaraes on September 6. At home, they lost 1-4 to FC Porto on September 12 and 0-1 to Santa Clara on October 10.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two sides heavily favors Estrela Amadora, who have won 5 of the 8 encounters, with Casa Pia winning 3 and no draws. The most recent meeting on March 20, 2026, saw Estrela Amadora dominate with a 4-0 home victory. Earlier in the 2025/26 season, Estrela Amadora won 5-3 away at Casa Pia on November 1, 2025. Historically, Estrela Amadora has also won this fixture 3-1 at home in March 2024.

League Table Positions

In the Primeira Liga standings, Estrela Amadora occupies 10th place with 10 points from 8 matches (2 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses), having scored 14 and conceded 15. Casa Pia sits outside the provided rankings among the top 12 teams. The home side's mid-table position reflects a slightly better goal involvement compared to their opponent's struggles, though Estrela Amadora's home form is not represented in the top 8 home standings table.

Win Probability: Estrela Amadora or Casa Pia?

We calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: Estrela Amadora has a 48% chance of winning, the draw stands at 27%, and Casa Pia has a 25% chance of victory. These percentages are based on inverting the best available bookmaker odds (home 1.62, draw 2.18, away 4.33), normalizing to remove the margin, and then adjusting for Estrela Amadora's dominant head-to-head record (5 wins in 8) and home advantage. The team's recent 4-0 and 5-3 wins over Casa Pia heavily influence the adjustment, though their inconsistent recent form prevents a higher probability. Casa Pia's poor form and lowly league position give them the lowest chance.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Estrela Amadora as the clear favorite, with the best available home win odds at 1.62. The draw is priced around 2.18, and an away win for Casa Pia is offered as high as 4.33. Based on the stats, including the 4-0 and 5-3 head-to-head wins, the prediction is a home victory for Estrela Amadora.