FC Andorra - Castellon prediction 11 October 2026

Our FC Andorra vs Castellon prediction for the Spanish Segunda clash on October 11, 2026, at 13:00 gives Castellon a 55% chance of winning. The match takes place at Nou Estadi in Tarragona, where struggling FC Andorra host the league leaders.

Team Form

FC Andorra come into this match with poor recent results. Their last five outings read: D, W, L, L, L. They drew 0-0 away at Sabadell on October 3, then beat Granada CF 3-2 away on September 26. However, three consecutive home defeats followed: 1-3 against Sporting Gijon (Sep 19), 1-3 against Real Sociedad B (Sep 12), and a 0-1 loss at Valladolid (Sep 5). At home, they have been particularly vulnerable, conceding three goals in each of those two home losses.

Castellon, in contrast, are in sensational form. They have won their last five matches: 2-0 away at Leganes (Sep 28), 5-0 at home to Tenerife (Sep 19), 2-1 away at Girona (Sep 12), 2-0 at home to Albacete (Sep 6), and 2-1 away at Celta Vigo B (Aug 31). With 14 goals scored and only 2 conceded in those five games, they are firing on all cylinders.

Head-to-Head Record

The two previous meetings between these sides both ended in Castellon victories. On February 1, 2026, Castellon won 2-0 at home. Earlier, on November 22, 2025, Castellon triumphed 3-1 away at FC Andorra. The head-to-head record stands at 0 wins for FC Andorra, 0 draws, and 2 wins for Castellon.

League Table Positions

Castellon sit top of the Segunda table with 19 points from 7 matches (6 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). They have scored 14 goals and conceded only 2, boasting the best defensive record in the league. Their away form is perfect: 4 wins from 4, with 7 goals scored and 2 conceded. FC Andorra are not among the top 12 teams shown in the standings, indicating they are much lower in the table. The gap in quality and momentum is stark.

Win Probability: FC Andorra or Castellon?

Based on all available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: FC Andorra 20%, draw 25%, Castellon 55%. The odds from three bookmakers imply an average probability of 30.3% for a home win, 32.5% for a draw, and 37.2% for an away win. However, Castellon’s five-match winning streak, perfect away record, dominant head-to-head (2-0), and FC Andorra’s poor home form and low league position heavily tilt the balance. We have therefore adjusted the probabilities to reflect the real disparity between the sides. Castellon is the clear favorite to take all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds for the match range from 2.80 to 3.00 for a home win, 2.35 to 3.70 for a draw, and 2.28 to 2.48 for an away win. The market sees Castellon as the slight favorite, with the draw also priced competitively. Based on the stats, our prediction is a Castellon victory. Their form, head-to-head dominance, and league position make them the most likely winner, and the away win odds still offer value given the 55% probability we assign.