Atletico Ottawa - Cavalry prediction 1 October 2026

This Atletico Ottawa vs Cavalry prediction covers the Canadian Premier League match on October 1, 2026. Based on team form, head-to-head records, and league standings, Cavalry enter the game as the favourite with a 48% win probability, while Atletico Ottawa have a 20% chance and the draw sits at 32%.

Team Form

Atletico Ottawa have been inconsistent at home recently. Their last five matches in all competitions ended W–L–L–D–W. The 1-0 away win over Halifax Wanderers on Sep 26 stopped a three‑game winless run that included a 2-0 home loss to Supra du Quebec and a 3-0 defeat at Forge FC Hamilton.

Cavalry come into this game in excellent shape. Their last five away fixtures produced W–D–W–W–W, with a 6-0 thrashing of Supra du Quebec on Sep 26, a 1-1 draw at home to Forge FC Hamilton, and solid 1-0 and 3-1 victories over Pacific FC and Halifax Wanderers respectively.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met 20 times previously, with Atletico Ottawa winning 11, Cavalry winning 6, and 3 draws. However, recent encounters heavily favour the visitors. The last three meetings all ended in Cavalry wins: 3-1 (Aug 22, 2026), 3-0 (Jul 4, 2026), and 3-1 (Apr 12, 2026). The last head-to-head at this stadium, on Jul 4, 2026, saw Cavalry claim a 3-0 victory.

League Table Positions

In the overall Premier League standings, Cavalry top the table with 53 points from 23 matches (16W, 5D, 2L). Atletico Ottawa sit 3rd with 37 points from 24 games. Cavalry’s away record is the best in the division: 7 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in 11 matches. Atletico Ottawa have 7 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses at home, ranking third on the home table.

Win Probability: Atletico Ottawa or Cavalry?

Using bookmaker odds as the base and adjusting for current form and head‑to‑head results, the win probabilities are:

• Atletico Ottawa win: 20%
• Draw: 32%
• Cavalry win: 48%

The average implied probabilities from the odds market gave roughly 21% for Atletico Ottawa, 37% for a draw, and 42% for Cavalry. The adjustment reflects Cavalry’s five‑match away run (W‑D‑W‑W‑W) and their three consecutive wins over Atletico Ottawa, as well as the significant gap in league points and goal difference.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers vary on the odds: Atletico Ottawa are priced between 3.33 and 4.10 (1X2), the draw between 1.21 and 3.70, and a Cavalry win between 1.66 and 2.20. The market clearly does not see a dominant favourite, but the form guide tilts strongly toward the away side. Taking all stats into account, the most likely outcome is a Cavalry win, although a draw cannot be ruled out.