Inter Toronto York 9 FC - Cavalry prediction 3 October 2026

Our Inter Toronto York 9 FC vs Cavalry prediction is for this Canadian Premier League match on October 3, 2026, at 17:00. Cavalry comes into the game as the strong favorite with a 60% win probability, while Inter Toronto York 9 FC has just a 15% chance. The draw sits at 25%.

Team Form

Inter Toronto York 9 FC's last five matches have been inconsistent: a 3-4 home loss to Pacific FC (Sep 27), a 3-3 away draw at Vancouver FC (Sep 24), a 1-4 away loss to Halifax Wanderers (Sep 20), a 3-1 home win over Vancouver FC (Sep 13), and a 3-3 home draw with Pacific FC (Sep 10). Defensive issues are evident—they have conceded 14 goals in those five games.

Cavalry is in excellent shape. Their last five outings: a 6-0 home win over Supra du Quebec (Sep 26), a 1-1 home draw with Forge FC Hamilton (Sep 19), a 1-0 away win at Pacific FC (Sep 13), a 3-1 away victory at Halifax Wanderers (Sep 7), and a 1-0 home success against Vancouver FC (Aug 29). With four wins and one draw, Cavalry has scored 12 and conceded only 2 in this stretch.

Head-to-Head Record

The two previous meetings have been one-sided. Cavalry won both matches in the Premier League: a 5-0 home win on August 2, 2026, and a 5-1 away win on June 11, 2026. The aggregate score stands at 10-1 in Cavalry's favor.

League Table Positions

Cavalry leads the Premier League table with 53 points (16 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses) and a +35 goal difference (48 scored, 13 conceded). They are the best away side with 23 points from 11 road games (7 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). Inter Toronto York 9 FC sits 7th with 24 points (5 wins, 9 draws, 8 losses) and a -16 goal difference (33 scored, 49 conceded). At home, they have collected 15 points from 10 games (4 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses).

Win Probability: Inter Toronto York 9 FC or Cavalry?

Based on the odds and form data, we calculate the outcome chances as follows: Inter Toronto York 9 FC win 15%, draw 25%, Cavalry win 60%. The base implied probabilities from bookmaker odds (averaging two major markets) gave Cavalry around 54%, the draw about 28%, and Inter Toronto York 9 FC 17%. Adjusting for Cavalry's dominant head-to-head record, their stellar current form, and their top-of-the-table standing, we shift the likelihood further in their favor. Conversely, the home side's poor defensive record and low league position reduce their chances. Cavalry is clearly the more probable winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varying odds. One market has a home win at 5.10, a draw at 2.58, and an away win at 1.85. Another lists 5.25 for a home victory, 4.00 for the stalemate, and 1.48 for the Cavalry success. The wide discrepancy in draw odds suggests some books see value in different outcomes, but the away win remains the shortest price. Based on the stats, Cavalry is the favorite. Our Inter Toronto York 9 FC vs Cavalry prediction is an away win.