Supra du Quebec - Cavalry prediction 1 November 2026

The Cavalry vs Supra du Quebec prediction for this Canadian Premier League clash on September 26, 2026, at 02:00 AM local time strongly favors the league leaders. Based on current form, head-to-head dominance, and home advantage, Cavalry enters with a 60% win probability, while Supra du Quebec has just a 15% chance of an upset.

Team Form

Cavalry comes into this match in excellent shape, with four wins and one draw from their last five outings (W,W,W,W,D). They've scored 9 goals across those five matches while conceding only 3, showing both offensive firepower and defensive solidity. At home, they remain unbeaten this season (8 wins, 3 draws), having scored 24 goals and conceded just 7 in 11 home fixtures.

Supra du Quebec's recent form is mixed: two wins, two losses, and one draw (W,L,L,W,D). They've netted 6 goals but conceded 8 in that spell, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities, especially away from home. Interestingly, their away record (3rd in away table) is better than their home standing, yet they still fall short against top-tier opponents.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H record heavily favors Cavalry. In four previous meetings, Cavalry have won twice, with two draws, and Supra du Quebec are yet to register a win. The most recent encounter on August 9, 2026, ended 1-1 at Supra du Quebec's ground. Before that, Cavalry won 2-1 at home on July 29, 2026, and also recorded a 0-0 draw and a 1-0 away win earlier in the year. The overall pattern is clear: Cavalry never lose this fixture.

League Table Positions

Cavalry sit top of the Canadian Premier League with 50 points from 22 games (15 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses). They boast the best goal difference in the league (+29). Supra du Quebec are 6th with 25 points (7 wins, 4 draws, 11 losses) and a -7 goal difference. The gap of 25 points underlines the gulf in class. At home, Cavalry are ranked 1st with 27 points from 11 games; Supra du Quebec's away ranks them 3rd, but they've still lost 5 of their 11 road matches.

Win Probability: Cavalry or Supra du Quebec?

After stripping out the bookmaker margin and adjusting for form, H2H, and table positions, our calculation gives: Cavalry a 60% chance of winning, a draw at 25%, and Supra du Quebec a 15% chance. The underlying odds implied about 53% for a home win, but Cavalry's dominant H2H record (Supra du Quebec have never beaten them), their unbeaten home campaign, and the visitors' inconsistent form push the probability even higher. A draw cannot be ruled out—two of the four H2Hs ended level—but an away win looks highly unlikely.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers overwhelmingly agree with the stats. The best available odds for a Cavalry win are around 1.50, the draw is priced at 2.48, and a Supra du Quebec victory as high as 5.50. This market clearly identifies Cavalry as the favorite. Taking into account all match data, our Cavalry vs Supra du Quebec prediction is a comfortable home win. The most plausible scoreline, given Cavalry's solid defense and Supra du Quebec's occasional away goals, could be 2-0 or 2-1. For betting tips, backing Cavalry to win offers value if you can get above 1.50, and the under 2.5 goals market might also appeal given the hosts' defensive record.