Alqueries CF - CD Almazora prediction 14 October 2026

The Alqueries CF vs CD Almazora prediction focuses on this Regional League match scheduled for Oct 14, 2026, at 19:00 local time. Based on all available data, Alqueries CF enter the match as favorites with a 45% win probability, while CD Almazora are given a 25% chance and the draw stands at 30%.

Team Form

Alqueries CF's last four results show a mixed picture with two wins, one draw, and one defeat (W-D-W-L). Their most recent outing was a dominant 3-0 home victory over CD Almazora on Dec 5, 2025. Earlier in 2025 they also beat the same opponent 2-1, proving they know how to handle this fixture.

CD Almazora come into this match on a poor run of away form. Their last five away results read D-L-L-L-L: one draw and four losses, including a 3-0 defeat at Alqueries CF and heavy losses against Promeses Sueca and UE Tavernes Valldigna. The away side have struggled defensively, conceding multiple goals in most of those games, while Alqueries CF have been more consistent at home.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is completely one-sided. Alqueries CF have won both previous meetings—2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses. The latest H2H match was a 3-0 home win on December 5, 2025, and the earlier clash on March 22, 2025 ended 2-1, also in Alqueries CF's favor. No other matches between these two are recorded in the data. That perfect H2H record gives Alqueries CF a clear psychological edge and a strong statistical basis for another positive result.

Win Probability: Alqueries CF or CD Almazora?

To calculate the win probabilities, we first removed the bookmaker margin from the available 1X2 odds. The average implied probabilities across two sets of odds were approximately 27% for a home win, 35% for a draw, and 38% for an away win. However, these market figures do not fully reflect the underlying stats: Alqueries CF's 2-0 head-to-head record, their better recent form (2W-1D-1L vs. CD Almazora's 0W-1D-4L away run), and the home advantage at this venue. Adjusting for these factors, we assess the true probabilities as: Alqueries CF 45%, Draw 30%, CD Almazora 25%. This means Alqueries CF are the most likely winners, and the draw is the second most probable outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are offering a range of odds for this fixture. For a home win (Alqueries CF), you can find prices between 3.00 and 3.75. The draw is available at 2.15 to 3.30, and an away win for CD Almazora is priced at 2.10 to 2.70. The market is split, with some operators viewing the draw as the most likely result and others making CD Almazora the slight favorite. Despite that, the head-to-head dominance and the significant form gap on the road for CD Almazora point toward a home win. Our prediction, based on the stats, leans toward Alqueries CF to win. The value may lie in backing the home side at the higher odds, given the 45% probability we estimate compared to the implied probability of 27% from the market average.