CD Choloma - Genesis PN prediction 24 October 2026

The Genesis PN vs CD Choloma prediction for the Liga Nacional match on August 1, 2026, at 21:30, points to a home victory. Based on our win probability analysis, Genesis PN has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 32%, and CD Choloma holds a 23% chance. Bookmakers also see Genesis PN as the clear favorite, but the recent form of both sides suggests a competitive encounter.

Team Form

Genesis PN come into this match with a mixed run of results: L, D, W, D, D in their last five outings. They lost 2-1 away to Motagua, drew 1-1 at home against Olancho, won 3-1 away at Olancho, and recorded two more draws – 1-1 at home to Motagua and 2-2 away at Olancho. The team has been hard to beat but has managed only one win in that stretch.

CD Choloma’s recent form reads W, L, L, W, W. They secured a 1-0 away win at CD Marathon, suffered a heavy 5-1 defeat at Motagua, lost 3-1 at home to Olimpia Tegucigalpa, then bounced back with a 5-2 away victory at CD Victoria and a 3-2 home win over Real Espana. The away side has shown they can score goals but also concede heavily on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two teams in Liga Nacional shows Genesis PN with 2 wins, CD Choloma with 1 win, and 1 draw from four meetings. The most recent clash on March 25, 2026, ended in a 2-1 away win for Genesis PN. Earlier fixtures include a 0-0 draw on February 1, 2026, a 1-0 home win for Genesis PN on November 2, 2025, and a 2-1 home win for CD Choloma on August 24, 2025. The head-to-head edge belongs to the home side.

League Table Positions

In the overall Liga Nacional standings, Genesis PN sit 9th with 18 points from 20 matches (4 wins, 6 draws, 10 losses), while CD Choloma are 11th with 11 points (3 wins, 2 draws, 15 losses). The home table shows Genesis PN in 8th place with 15 points from 10 home games (4 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses). CD Choloma do not appear in the top 8 of the away standings, underlining their struggles on the road this season.

Win Probability: Genesis PN or CD Choloma?

After normalizing the bookmaker odds and adjusting for team form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, we calculate the following outcome probabilities: Genesis PN win – 45%, draw – 32%, CD Choloma win – 23%. The odds implied a home win probability of around 43%, but Genesis PN’s superior league position, positive H2H record, and home field advantage push that figure slightly higher. CD Choloma’s away volatility keeps their chances below 25%.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer the following 1X2 odds for this match: home win at 1.85, draw at 2.25, and away win at 3.80. These odds reflect the market’s view that Genesis PN are the favorites. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a Genesis PN victory, but the draw cannot be discounted given the home side’s recent tendency to share points. A 1-0 or 2-1 home win appears the most probable scoreline.