Honduras Progreso - CD Choloma prediction 23 September 2026

The Honduras Progreso vs CD Choloma prediction for the Liga de Ascenso match on September 23, 2026, at 22:00 local time, suggests a closely fought encounter where a draw is the most probable outcome. Based on odds, recent form, and head-to-head history, we assign a 38% chance to the stalemate, with Honduras Progreso at 32% and CD Choloma at 30%.

Team Form

Honduras Progreso come into this match with a mixed run of results: D, L, D, L, W in their last five outings. Their most recent home game ended in a 2-2 draw against Juventud Yorena on Sep 12, 2026. Prior to that, they suffered a 1-0 loss to FC Santa Rosa at home and a 2-1 defeat away at Vida. The only win in this stretch was a 2-1 home victory over Estrella FC Santos Guardiola back in February.

CD Choloma's last five results read W, L, D, L, W. They are coming off a 2-0 home win against CD Estrella Roja on Sep 19, but their away form is a concern: they lost 1-0 at Lobos UPNFM and 2-1 at Real Espana in their last two road trips. A 0-0 home draw with Olancho and a 2-0 home win over CD Platense complete their recent record.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met twice in recent history, both in the Liga de Ascenso, and both matches ended in draws. On Dec 1, 2024, Honduras Progreso hosted CD Choloma and the game finished 1-1. A week earlier, on Nov 24, 2024, CD Choloma held Honduras Progreso to a 0-0 stalemate at home. The head-to-head record shows 0 wins for either team and 2 draws.

Win Probability: Honduras Progreso or CD Choloma?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows: Honduras Progreso 32%, Draw 38%, CD Choloma 30%. These percentages are derived from the average bookmaker odds (home 2.82, draw 2.48, away 2.73), adjusted for the teams' recent form and the head-to-head trend. The odds imply a tight contest, but the draw stands out as the most likely single outcome. Honduras Progreso’s slight home advantage nudges their win chance above the visitors, but CD Choloma’s poor away record (two consecutive away losses) reduces their probability. The history of two draws in two meetings reinforces the high likelihood of another stalemate.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer average odds of 2.82 for a Honduras Progreso win, 2.48 for the draw, and 2.73 for a CD Choloma victory. The lowest odds are on the draw, confirming that the market sees this as an even matchup with a high chance of a tie. Our prediction: based on the stats, a draw is the most probable result, but Honduras Progreso could edge it if they capitalize on home soil. For betting tips, the draw market looks attractive, and under 2.5 total goals might also be worth considering given the low-scoring history.