Motagua - CD Choloma prediction 11 October 2026

Our Motagua vs CD Choloma prediction for the October 11, 2026 Liga Nacional clash points to a home win, with Motagua holding a 60% chance of victory. The match kicks off at 00:15 and the data strongly favours the hosts.

Team Form

Motagua's recent form in Liga Nacional shows three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five outings. They suffered a 1-0 defeat at Real Espana on Sep 20, then bounced back with a 1-0 home win over Genesis PN on Sep 13. A 0-0 draw at CA Independiente Siguatepeque on Sep 6 preceded two commanding victories: 2-1 against Olancho (Aug 30) and 4-1 against Lobos UPNFM (Aug 22).

CD Choloma's last five matches have produced three wins, one draw and one defeat, but two of those wins came in the Liga de Ascenso. They beat Deportes Savio 1-0 (Oct 4) and won 3-2 at Honduras Progreso (Sep 23). In Liga Nacional, they defeated CD Estrella Roja 2-0 (Sep 19), lost 1-0 at Lobos UPNFM (Sep 13) and drew 0-0 with Olancho (Sep 5).

Head-to-Head Record

Motagua have absolutely dominated this fixture, winning all four previous meetings. The most recent encounters all ended in regulation-time victories for the club:

• Apr 27, 2026: Motagua 5-1 CD Choloma
• Mar8, 2026: CD Choloma 1-3 Motagua
• Nov9, 2025: Motagua 2-1 CD Choloma
• Sep11, 2025: CD Choloma 0-3 Motagua

Total goals stand at 13-3 in favour of Motagua, with no draws.

League Table Positions

In the Liga Nacional overall standings, Motagua sit 4th with 13 points from 8 matches (4 wins,1 draw,3 losses,11 scored,8 conceded). CD Choloma are10th with7 points (2 wins,1 draw,5 losses,6 goals for,8 against).

At home, Motagua have collected9 points from4 outings (3 wins,0 draws,1 defeat), scoring7 and conceding4. CD Choloma’s away form in Liga Nacional has been poor, with just2 goals scored in4 away fixtures (1 draw,3 losses from available data). The table gap and home strength heavily advantage the hosts.

Win Probability: Motagua or CD Choloma?

Based on the odds, the perfect head-to-head record, league positions, and home advantage, we calculate the following probabilities:

• Motagua win:60%
• Draw:25%
• CD Choloma win:15%

These figures are derived from the implied probabilities of the available odds (home win as low as 1.38, draw up to 4.50) and then adjusted to reflect Motagua’s four-match winning H2H streak and superior table standing. Motagua clearly have the higher chance of securing three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ 1X2 odds on this match show Motagua as the favourite, with home win prices ranging from 1.38 to 1.83. The draw is offered at 2.50 to 4.50, while an away win for CD Choloma can be backed at 5.75 to 6.00.

Taking everything into account – the dominant H2H, the 10-point gap in the league, and home form – our Motagua vs CD Choloma prediction is a home win. The probability model points to a clear victory for the hosts, likely with a margin of at least two goals given the historical outcomes.