CD Everton Vina del Mar - Deportes La Serena prediction 11 October 2026

Our CD Everton Vina del Mar vs Deportes La Serena prediction for this Primera Division clash on October 11, 2026, points to a home advantage, but not a dominant one. Based on our analysis of odds, form, and head-to-head stats, CD Everton Vina del Mar has a 45% win probability, while Deportes La Serena sits at 25%, with a 30% chance of a draw.

Team Form

CD Everton Vina del Mar come into this match with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings (W-L-W-W-D). They beat Nublense 3-1 away, lost 0-1 at home to Universidad Catolica, thrashed Deportes Limache 3-0 on the road, defeated Universidad de Concepcion 3-1 at home, and drew 1-1 at home with Audax Italiano. That’s 10 goals scored in five games, showing strong attacking form, though the home loss to Catolica exposed some vulnerability at Sausalito.

Deportes La Serena’s last five results read L-W-W-D-W. They suffered a heavy 0-3 home defeat to Universidad de Chile, bounced back with a 2-1 home win over Nublense, won 1-0 away at Union La Calera, drew 3-3 at home with Cobresal, and won 2-0 away at Universidad de Concepcion. Like Everton, they have three wins in five, but their away performances have been solid, with two wins and a draw in the last three road trips.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record favours CD Everton Vina del Mar: 7 wins to Deportes La Serena’s 3, with 2 draws in 12 meetings. The last four encounters have all been won by the home side. La Serena won 1-0 at home in April 2026, Everton triumphed 3-1 at home in August 2025, La Serena won 2-1 at home in April 2025, and Everton recorded a 4-0 home victory in August 2022. At Sausalito, Everton have won the last two H2H matches by convincing margins, which gives them a psychological edge.

League Table Positions

CD Everton Vina del Mar sit 4th in the Primera Division with 36 points from 23 matches (10 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses). They have scored 37 goals and conceded 25. Deportes La Serena are 9th with 30 points (7 wins, 9 draws, 7 losses), scoring 34 and conceding 38. The six-point gap and superior goal difference underline Everton’s stronger campaign.

However, the home/away splits tell a more nuanced story. Everton’s home record is not among the league’s top eight: from 12 home games they have collected only 16 points (approximately 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses). La Serena, on the other hand, are 6th in the away table with 14 points from 11 trips (3 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses). They are tough to beat on the road, losing just three times all season away from home. This resilience is a key factor in the draw probability.

Win Probability: CD Everton Vina del Mar or Deportes La Serena?

After normalizing the bookmaker odds and adjusting for team form, head-to-head trends, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• CD Everton Vina del Mar win: 45%
• Draw: 30%
• Deportes La Serena win: 25%

The odds implied a home win probability of around 41%, but we have raised it slightly because of Everton’s strong H2H home record and higher league standing. The draw probability is boosted by La Serena’s excellent away record (five draws in 11 away games) and Everton’s inconsistent home form. La Serena’s 25% chance reflects their ability to grind out results on the road, with three away wins already this season. Overall, CD Everton Vina del Mar is the more likely winner, but the match is far from a sure thing.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see CD Everton Vina del Mar as the favourite. The best available odds are around 2.10 for a home win, 2.38 for the draw, and 3.90 for an away victory. These odds vary slightly across different bookies, with some offering as low as 1.73 for Everton. Based on the stats, Everton should edge this, but the value may lie in the draw market given La Serena’s stubbornness on the road. Our CD Everton Vina del Mar vs Deportes La Serena prediction is a home win, but with a high chance of a stalemate. A 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline in Everton’s favour is the most probable outcome, though a 1-1 draw cannot be ruled out.