CA Independiente Siguatepeque - CD Marathon prediction 25 October 2026

Our CD Marathon vs CA Independiente Siguatepeque prediction for this Liga Nacional match on Aug 04 at 01:00 UTC points to CD Marathon as the favorite with a 48% win probability. The bookmakers' odds strongly support the home side, while the draw chance is 34% and an away win for CA Independiente Siguatepeque stands at just 18%.

Team Form

CD Marathon head into this fixture after three consecutive draws in the Liga Nacional: 0-0 vs Motagua, 1-1 vs Motagua, and 1-1 vs Real Espana. Before that, they beat Olimpia Tegucigalpa 1-0 at home and lost 2-0 away to the same opponent. Their last five results read D, D, D, W, L. At home, Marathon are unbeaten this season with 8 wins and 2 draws in 10 league games, scoring 19 goals and conceding only 3.

CA Independiente Siguatepeque's recent matches have been inconsistent. Over the last five outings (mostly in the Liga de Ascenso), they recorded a 1-1 draw against CD Real Sociedad, a 2-1 loss to Deportivo Piratas, a 1-0 win at AFFI Academia, a 3-2 home defeat to CD Estrella Roja, and a 5-1 home victory over Real Tegus. Their form pattern is D, L, W, L, W, highlighting their vulnerability on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no historical head-to-head data for CD Marathon vs CA Independiente Siguatepeque. This will be the first official meeting between the two clubs.

League Table Positions

CD Marathon sit 2nd in the Liga Nacional overall table with 42 points from 20 matches (12W, 6D, 2L). They have scored 41 goals and conceded just 15. At home, they are the division's best team: 8 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, 19 scored, 3 conceded. CA Independiente Siguatepeque are not ranked in the Liga Nacional standings as they compete in the Liga de Ascenso, the second tier of Honduran football.

Win Probability: CD Marathon or CA Independiente Siguatepeque?

We calculate CD Marathon's win probability at 48%, a draw at 34%, and CA Independiente Siguatepeque's at 18%. These figures are derived from the bookmakers' implied odds (normalized to remove the margin), then adjusted for league position, home strength, and recent form. Marathon's perfect home record and the class gap between the divisions justify a higher chance for the hosts than the raw odds suggest. While Marathon have drawn three in a row, their unbeaten home run makes a win the most likely outcome.

CD Marathon vs CA Independiente Siguatepeque Prediction

Bookmakers see CD Marathon as the clear favorite. The average pre‑match odds across several books are 2.07 for a home win, 2.26 for the draw, and 5.10 for an away victory. Some bookies offer Marathon at 2.02, the draw at 2.35, and Independiente at 4.80.

Based on the stats and odds, our prediction is a home win for CD Marathon. The draw cannot be completely ruled out given Marathon's recent sequence of stalemates, but their strength at home and the lower‑league opposition should see them secure the victory.