Juticalpa - CD Marathon prediction 21 September 2026

The Juticalpa vs CD Marathon prediction for September 21, 2026, points to a clear away favorite in this Liga Nacional clash. Based on odds, recent form, and head-to-head dominance, CD Marathon holds a 55% win probability, while Juticalpa has just a 15% chance and the draw sits at 30%.

Team Form

Juticalpa enters this match in dreadful shape. Their last five results read L, L, W, L, L, with the lone win a 1-0 home victory over Lobos UPNFM on August 29. Defeats include a 2-1 loss at CA Independiente Siguatepeque, a 0-3 home loss to Genesis PN, a 5-2 thrashing at CD Estrella Roja, and a 1-0 loss at Olancho. They have scored just 5 goals in 7 league matches while conceding 17.

CD Marathon, by contrast, is flying. Their last five: W, W, W, D, W. They beat Olimpia Tegucigalpa 1-0 at home, crushed CD Estrella Roja 5-0, won 2-1 at Genesis PN, drew 1-1 with Real Espana, and beat CD Choloma 1-0 away. With 12 goals scored and only 3 conceded in 7 games, they are the league's second-best team.

Head-to-Head Record

The all-time head-to-head record heavily favors CD Marathon: 16 away wins compared to Juticalpa's 6 home wins, with 6 draws. The last five meetings have all gone CD Marathon's way, often by wide margins:

• Mar 18, 2026: Juticalpa 0-4 CD Marathon
• Jan 29, 2026: CD Marathon 3-0 Juticalpa
• Oct 04, 2025: Juticalpa 1-3 CD Marathon
• Jul 27, 2025: CD Marathon 7-0 Juticalpa
• Mar 06, 2025: CD Marathon 4-0 Juticalpa

CD Marathon has outscored Juticalpa 21-1 in those five matches, underlining the gulf between the sides.

League Table Positions

Juticalpa sits rock bottom in 12th place with just 3 points from 7 matches (1 win, 0 draws, 6 losses). They have the worst goal difference in the league (-12). CD Marathon is 2nd with 17 points (5 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) and a +9 goal difference, just one point behind leaders Real Espana with a game in hand. On the road, CD Marathon ranks 1st in the away standings with 7 points from 3 games (2 wins, 1 draw).

Win Probability: Juticalpa or CD Marathon?

After removing the bookmaker margin from the 1X2 odds and adjusting for form, head-to-head record, and league positions, the win probabilities are:

• Juticalpa win: 15%
• Draw: 30%
• CD Marathon win: 55%

CD Marathon's superior form, dominant H2H streak, and top away record make them the overwhelming favorite. Juticalpa's only hope is a drastic turnaround, but the numbers give them very little chance.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see CD Marathon as the clear favorite. Typical odds are around 5.00 for a Juticalpa home win, 2.30 for the draw, and 2.00 for an away win. Some books offer as high as 6.26 on the home side and as low as 1.54 on the away win. Based on the stats, a CD Marathon victory is the most likely outcome, and the value may lie in backing them to win with a clean sheet, given Juticalpa's scoring struggles.