Olimpija Ljubljana - Celje prediction 28 October 2026

Our Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje prediction for October 28, 2026, assesses this 1st League fixture. Based on detailed analysis of form, head-to-head records, and league standings, the most probable outcome is a tight draw, with Celje holding a narrow edge in win probability over Olimpija Ljubljana.

Team Form

Olimpija Ljubljana's recent form in the 1st League shows mixed results: a 1-0 away win against Aluminij, a 3-3 home draw with Mura, a 2-1 away loss at NK Bravo, and a 3-1 away victory over Koper. A friendly win against NK Slaven Belupo also appears. Their last five league results are W, D, W, L, W. Celje comes into this match after a 2-2 home draw with Red Bull Salzburg in the UEFA Europa League, a 0-0 away draw at NK Maribor, a 0-3 home loss against Omonia Nicosia, a 1-0 home win over Aluminij, and a 0-0 draw with Mura. Their last five competitive results are D, D, L, W, D, indicating resilience but a lack of consistent wins.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Olimpija Ljubljana and Celje spans 42 matches. Olimpija has 19 wins, Celje has 10, and 13 matches have ended in a draw. The most recent five encounters heavily favor the away side on the day: Celje won the last two meetings when playing at home (1-0 on Aug 8, 2026, and 2-0 on Apr 15, 2026). Olimpija's last home win in this fixture was a 3-1 victory on Feb 8, 2026. A notable result was Celje's 5-0 away win on Aug 3, 2025, showcasing their potential to dominate in Ljubljana.

League Table Positions

In the overall 1st League standings, Olimpija Ljubljana sits 4th with 18 points from 12 matches (5 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses). Celje is 6th with 16 points but has a game in hand, from 11 matches (4 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses). At home, Olimpija is 3rd with 11 points from 6 games. Celje's away record places them 5th, with 8 points from 6 games. Both teams have similar goals against records: Olimpija has conceded 11, Celje also 11. This points to a closely contested battle.

Win Probability: Olimpija Ljubljana or Celje?

We calculate the outcome probabilities by analyzing available bookmaker odds and adjusting for team form and H2H trends. The average odds imply a tight contest. After normalizing the inverse odds to remove the bookmaker margin, we find: Olimpija Ljubljana has a 35% chance of winning, the draw is at 34%, and Celje has a 31% chance. Despite Olimpija's higher league position and home advantage, Celje's strong recent H2H away record and Olimpija's inconsistent home form make this fixture extremely balanced.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers set the odds for this match closely. The pre-match 1X2 market shows Olimpija Ljubljana's home win priced around 2.40 to 2.59, the draw between 2.18 and 3.44, and a Celje away win between 2.69 and 3.10. The variation in draw odds is notable, but the overall market suggests no clear favorite. Our final Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje prediction: expect a cautious, tactical match. Based on the stats, the value could lie in the draw, as both teams look to avoid defeat in a tightly packed league table.