Motherwell - Celtic prediction 11 October 2026

The Premiership match between Motherwell and Celtic on Oct 11, 2026, at Fir Park is the focus of our Motherwell vs Celtic prediction. Based on the latest stats, Celtic are clear favourites with a 48% win probability, while Motherwell hold just a 19% chance and the draw sits at 33%. The game kicks off at 12:00.

Team Form

Motherwell have been struggling recently, losing their last three matches. That poor run includes a heavy 0-4 home defeat to Aberdeen on Sep 15 and a 1-2 loss away at Dundee. A 3-0 home win over Dundee United on Sep 2 remains their only victory in the last five outings, alongside a 3-3 draw at St Mirren. Overall, their last five results are L, L, L, W, D.

Celtic’s form is mixed but improving. They suffered back-to-back home losses – 0-1 to Rangers in the league and 1-3 to Ferencvaros in the UEFA Europa League – but have since won three in a row, all by a single-goal margin: 0-1 at St Johnstone, 1-2 at St Mirren, and a 3-0 home win against Aberdeen. Their away league form remains perfect this season with three wins out of three, scoring 8 goals and conceding only 2.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record heavily favours Celtic. In 40 previous meetings, Celtic have won 31, Motherwell just 1, with 8 draws. Looking at the last five encounters, Celtic have won four: a 3-2 away win on May 13, 2026, a 3-1 home win on Mar 14, 2026, a 3-2 home win on Oct 5, 2025, and a 3-1 away win on Feb 2, 2025. Motherwell’s sole recent success came at home on Dec 30, 2025, when they beat Celtic 2-0.

League Table Positions

Celtic sit top of the Premiership with 18 points after 7 matches (6 wins, 1 loss). They boast the best goal difference in the league (14 scored, 4 conceded). Motherwell are 9th with 8 points from 7 games (2 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses), having scored 9 and conceded 11. In away matches, Celtic are perfect – 3 wins from 3, while Motherwell at home have recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their 3 fixtures at Fir Park.

Win Probability: Motherwell or Celtic?

The win probabilities calculated from the latest bookmaker odds give Celtic a 48% chance of winning. The draw is priced at a significant 33%, while a Motherwell victory stands at just 19%. These figures are based on the inverse of the average odds (home 4.36, draw 2.59, away 1.79) with the bookmaker margin removed. The stats – Celtic’s superior league position, unbeaten away record, and dominant head-to-head history – all support the bookmakers’ view that the visitors are the most likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

Average match odds from multiple bookmakers see Celtic as the strong favourite at around 1.79, with the draw at 2.59 and a Motherwell home win at 4.36. This betting picture aligns with the data: Celtic are 1st in the table, have won their last three Premiership away games, and have beaten Motherwell in four of the last five meetings. Based on all available stats, the most probable outcome is a Celtic win, although the odds also show a realistic chance of a draw – a result that has occurred in 8 of the 40 historical matches between the sides.