Club Oriental de La Paz Reserves - Cerro Largo Reserve prediction 28 September 2026

Club Oriental de La Paz Reserves vs Cerro Largo Reserve prediction for September 28, 2026, in the Primera Division Reserve League points to Club Oriental de La Paz Reserves as the favorite with a 50% win probability. The match kicks off at 18:00 local time in Uruguay. Cerro Largo Reserve arrive on a five-match losing streak, while the home side have won two of their last five.

Team Form

Club Oriental de La Paz Reserves come into this match with mixed home form: D, W, L, W, L in their last five. On Sep 21 they drew 0-0 with CA Penarol Montevideo Reservers; on Sep 14 they beat River Plate Montevideo Reserves 4-2; on Sep 7 they lost 1-3 to Racing Montevideo Reserves; on Aug 31 they won 2-1 against Juventud de las Piedras Reserves; on Aug 24 they lost 1-2 to Liverpool Montevideo Reserves.

Cerro Largo Reserve have lost all of their last five matches: 0-2 vs Nacional Montevideo Reserves, 2-4 at Boston River Reserves, 0-2 vs Defensor Sporting Reserves, 0-5 at Albion Montevideo Reserves, and 0-1 vs Central Espanol Reserve. This poor run makes them clear underdogs despite the close odds.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once in the available data. On May 25, 2026, Cerro Largo Reserve beat Club Oriental de La Paz Reserves 3-1 in the Primera Division Reserve League. Club Oriental have not beaten Cerro Largo in that single head-to-head meeting.

Win Probability: Club Oriental de La Paz Reserves or Cerro Largo Reserve?

Based on the odds, recent form and home advantage, Club Oriental de La Paz Reserves has a 50% chance of winning, the draw is at 26%, and Cerro Largo Reserve has a 24% chance. Bookmaker odds before the match gave Club Oriental around 2.30–2.40, the draw around 3.30–3.50, and Cerro Largo around 2.52–2.55. Adjusting for Cerro Largo's five consecutive defeats and Club Oriental's stronger home run lifts the home side above the raw implied probability.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available bookmaker odds for this match are: home win 2.40, draw 3.30, away win 2.52; another market lists 2.30, 3.50, 2.55; a third market shows 1.10, 1.08, 1.10. Bookmakers see Club Oriental de La Paz Reserves as a slight favorite. Our prediction: a home win is the most likely outcome, but Cerro Largo Reserve's previous 3-1 head-to-head win and the close odds suggest that a draw or away upset cannot be ruled out.