Cerro Largo Reserve - Deportivo Maldonado Reserves prediction 5 October 2026

Our Cerro Largo Reserve vs Deportivo Maldonado Reserves prediction for the Primera Division Reserve League match on October 5, 2026, points to an away win for Deportivo Maldonado Reserves, who hold a 45% win probability. Cerro Largo Reserve have just a 25% chance of victory, while the draw is rated at 30%. The game kicks off at 19:00 local time in Uruguay.

Team Form

Cerro Largo Reserve are in dreadful form, failing to win any of their last five matches (D1 L4). They have scored only 2 goals and conceded 13 in this period, failing to find the net in four of those five games. Their recent results:

• Sep 28: Club Oriental de La Paz Reserves 0-0 Cerro Largo Reserve (D)
• Sep 21: Cerro Largo Reserve 0-2 Nacional Montevideo Reserves (L)
• Sep 14: Boston River Reserves 4-2 Cerro Largo Reserve (L)
• Sep 7: Cerro Largo Reserve 0-2 Defensor Sporting Reserves (L)
• Sep 1: Albion Montevideo Reserves 5-0 Cerro Largo Reserve (L)

At home, they have lost their last two matches 0-2, showing little attacking threat and defensive fragility.

Deportivo Maldonado Reserves have been inconsistent, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five. They have scored 8 and conceded 8, finding the net in four of the five matches. Their last five results:

• Sep 28: Deportivo Maldonado Reserves 1-3 CA Penarol Montevideo Reservers (L)
• Sep 21: Deportivo Maldonado Reserves 4-1 River Plate Montevideo Reserves (W)
• Sep 14: Racing Montevideo Reserves 1-1 Deportivo Maldonado Reserves (D)
• Sep 7: Deportivo Maldonado Reserves 0-2 Juventud de las Piedras Reserves (L)
• Aug 31: Liverpool Montevideo Reserves 1-2 Deportivo Maldonado Reserves (W)

They have won two of their last three away games, which bodes well for this trip.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record consists of three previous meetings, all in the Primera Division Reserve League and all played at Deportivo Maldonado Reserves' home. Deportivo Maldonado Reserves won the most recent encounter 3-1 on June 2, 2026. The other two matches ended in 1-1 draws (May 16, 2023 and November 21, 2022). Cerro Largo Reserve have never beaten Deportivo Maldonado Reserves in this fixture, and this will be the first time they host the match.

Win Probability: Cerro Largo Reserve or Deportivo Maldonado Reserves?

We calculated the win probabilities by first taking the average bookmaker odds: 2.86 for a Cerro Largo Reserve win, 2.91 for a draw, and 2.28 for a Deportivo Maldonado Reserves win. The implied probabilities are 30.9%, 30.3%, and 38.8% respectively. After adjusting for Cerro Largo Reserve's terrible form (four losses in five) and Deportivo Maldonado Reserves' superior results, we project the true probabilities as: Cerro Largo Reserve 25%, Draw 30%, Deportivo Maldonado Reserves 45%. The draw probability of 30% reflects the fact that two of the three head-to-head meetings have ended all square, and both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities. Although Cerro Largo Reserve have home advantage, their recent home defeats and overall poor form significantly reduce their chances. The away side is the clear favorite to take all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Deportivo Maldonado Reserves as the favorite, with average odds around 2.28 for an away win. Some bookies offer as low as 2.05, implying a near 49% chance. The home win is priced at about 2.86, and the draw at 2.91, with some firms going as high as 3.50 for the stalemate. Based on the stats and our probability assessment, our Cerro Largo Reserve vs Deportivo Maldonado Reserves prediction is an away victory. The odds for Deportivo Maldonado Reserves to win present good value given their 45% chance.