Cerro Largo - Albion Montevideo prediction 11 October 2026

The Cerro Largo vs Albion Montevideo prediction for the Primera Division clash on October 11, 2026, is a hot topic for Uruguayan football fans. Kick-off is at 19:00 local time, with Cerro Largo hosting at their home stadium. Our data-driven analysis gives Cerro Largo a 30% win probability, a 40% chance of a draw, and Albion Montevideo a 30% chance, making a stalemate the most likely outcome.

Team Form

Cerro Largo are in woeful form, losing four of their last five and drawing the other. Those results include a 1-2 loss at Danubio on Oct 4, a 0-2 home reverse to Nacional Montevideo, a 0-2 away defeat by Deportivo Maldonado, a goalless home draw with Central Espanol, and a 1-2 loss at Montevideo City Torque. In total they've scored just 2 goals and conceded 8 in that run, failing to find the net in three of the five matches.

Albion Montevideo have not fared much better: one win and four losses. They edged Defensor Sporting 3-2 at home, but then lost 1-2 at Montevideo Wanderers, 1-3 at home to Juventud de Las Piedras, 1-3 at CA Penarol Montevideo, and 0-1 at home to CA Progreso. They've conceded 11 goals in five games, highlighting defensive frailty. Both sides enter this fixture desperately needing a turnaround.

Head-to-Head Record

Head-to-head history is limited to two meetings. Albion Montevideo are unbeaten, with a 2-2 away draw in April 2026 and a 2-1 victory at Cerro Largo back in September 2022. That gives the visitors a psychological edge, though the sample size is small.

League Table Positions

The Primera Division table currently shows every team with 0 points and 0 matches played, as the season is just getting underway. Consequently, league positions offer no insight into the relative strength of Cerro Largo and Albion Montevideo at this stage.

Win Probability: Cerro Largo or Albion Montevideo?

We calculated outcome probabilities by averaging the six available 1X2 pre-match odds and normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin, then adjusting for recent form and head-to-head results. The raw odds implied a 35.4% home win, 38.0% draw, and 26.6% away win. Because Cerro Largo’s form has been dire (four losses in five) and Albion have the better head-to-head record, we shifted some home-win probability to the draw and away win, resulting in a final distribution of 30% home, 40% draw, 30% away. The draw stands out as the most likely scenario.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer Cerro Largo to win at odds between 2.30 and 2.47, the draw from 1.98 to 3.13, and Albion Montevideo between 3.04 and 3.40. The tight range around the draw reflects the expectation of a close, low‑scoring contest. Our match prediction leans towards a draw, with both teams struggling to secure all three points.