Danubio - Cerro Largo prediction 4 October 2026

The Danubio vs Cerro Largo prediction for this Primera Division clash on October 4, 2026, at 14:00 points to a tight contest where a draw is the most likely outcome. Based on odds, form and head-to-head data, Danubio has a 32% chance of winning, the draw is at 41%, and Cerro Largo holds a 27% probability.

Team Form

Danubio come into this match without a win in their last five outings, managing two draws and suffering three defeats. Their most recent result was a 1-0 loss away at Defensor Sporting on Sep 27. At home, they could only draw 1-1 with Montevideo Wanderers and were beaten 4-0 by CA Penarol Montevideo, scoring just once in those two fixtures.

Cerro Largo are also struggling, earning just two points from their last five matches via two draws and three losses. Their away form shows back-to-back defeats at Deportivo Maldonado (2-0) and Montevideo City Torque (2-1). The only clean sheet in this period was a 0-0 home draw with Central Espanol.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Cerro Largo have the upper hand with 6 wins to Danubio's 2, plus 4 draws across all meetings. Looking at the last five encounters, Cerro Largo won twice (both at home, including a 2-0 victory in March 2026) and three fixtures ended in draws. The most recent match at Danubio’s ground, in February 2025, finished 0-0.

• Mar 31, 2026: Cerro Largo 2-0 Danubio
• Aug 18, 2025: Cerro Largo 1-0 Danubio
• Mar 6, 2025: Cerro Largo 2-2 Danubio (Copa Sudamericana)
• Feb 15, 2025: Danubio 0-0 Cerro Largo
• Oct 20, 2024: Cerro Largo 0-0 Danubio

League Table Positions

The Primera Division standings are yet to take shape – all teams, including Danubio and Cerro Largo, currently show zero points with no matches played. Consequently, league position offers no direct advantage for either side.

Win Probability: Danubio vs Cerro Largo Prediction

The win probability calculation combines bookmaker odds with recent form and head-to-head trends. Removing the bookmaker margin and averaging across available odds gives an initial baseline of about 32% for a Danubio win, 41% for a draw, and 27% for a Cerro Largo victory. Neither side is in good form – both are winless in five – but the visitors have the psychological edge from a superior H2H record. Considering the stagnation in both attacks, the draw probability is adjusted marginally upward. The final assessment: Danubio 32%, Draw 41%, Cerro Largo 27%. A draw is the single most probable match outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as an open affair. The best available odds for a Danubio home win range from 2.45 to 3.00, while the draw is quoted around 1.95–2.05. Cerro Largo’s away win can be backed at between 3.60 and 3.70. One outlier bookmaker offers very different prices (1.33, 1.30, 1.13), but the consensus market clearly expects a low-scoring fixture with no clear favorite. Based on the stats and the bookmaker consensus, the safest prediction is a stalemate – the draw is the most logical outcome, with Danubio slightly more likely to snatch a win than Cerro Largo if a goal does arrive.