Cesky Tesin - Tatran Jakubcovice prediction 22 August 2026

Looking for a Cesky Tesin vs Tatran Jakubcovice prediction? The match takes place on August 22, 2026, at 08:30 UTC in the Czech Republic 5 Liga. Bookmakers see Cesky Tesin as the favorite, but recent form suggests the contest is much closer than the odds imply. Our analysis gives Cesky Tesin a 40% win probability, the draw 30%, and Tatran Jakubcovice 30%.

Team Form

Cesky Tesin's recent results are alarming. They have lost four of their last five matches, with only one draw. The full sequence reads L, L, L, D, L. Defensive issues are clear, conceding 11 goals in these five outings.

• Jun 07: Pusta Polom 3-2 Cesky Tesin (L)
• May 30: Cesky Tesin 0-4 Opava II (L)
• May 23: Novy Jicin 2-0 Cesky Tesin (L)
• May 16: Cesky Tesin 2-2 Frydlant Nad Ostravici (D)
• May 01: Cesky Tesin 0-2 SK Stonava (L)

Tatran Jakubcovice, in contrast, have turned a corner. Their last five results are L, L, D, W, W, with two wins in the last three. They have shown resilience on the road, winning 1-0 at Haj ve Slezsku and drawing 1-1 at Vratimov.

• Jul 23: Tatran Jakubcovice 0-2 Novy Jicin (L, Cup)
• Apr 05: Cesky Tesin 2-0 Tatran Jakubcovice (L)
• Sep 17: Vratimov 1-1 Tatran Jakubcovice (D)
• May 28: Haj ve Slezsku 0-1 Tatran Jakubcovice (W)
• May 04: Tatran Jakubcovice 3-1 SK Brusperk (W)

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met twice before, both times at Cesky Tesin's ground. The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced at one win each, with no draws. Cesky Tesin won 2-0 on April 5, 2025, while Tatran Jakubcovice claimed a 1-0 victory on November 17, 2021. The even history adds further uncertainty to this fixture.

Win Probability: Cesky Tesin or Tatran Jakubcovice?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows: Cesky Tesin 40%, draw 30%, Tatran Jakubcovice 30%. The starting point was the bookmaker odds of 1.93 (home), 2.55 (draw), and 4.75 (away). The inverse of these odds gives implied probabilities of 51.8%, 39.2%, and 21.1%, summing to 112.1%. After removing the 12.1% margin, the fair probabilities are 46.2%, 35.0%, and 18.8%. However, Cesky Tesin's dreadful form (0 wins in 5) and Tatran Jakubcovice's two recent wins force a significant adjustment. We shifted probability from the home win to the away win and draw, reflecting the visitors' improved performances. Home advantage and the balanced H2H keep Cesky Tesin as the marginal favorite, but the match is far more open than the raw odds indicate.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers present two distinct views. One lists Cesky Tesin at 1.93, the draw at 2.55, and Tatran Jakubcovice at 4.75. Another is even more skewed: Cesky Tesin 1.50, draw 4.33, away 4.50. The market clearly favors the home side. Our Cesky Tesin vs Tatran Jakubcovice prediction, however, points to a tight contest. Given the form disparity, a draw or an away win cannot be ruled out. The most likely outcome is a narrow Cesky Tesin victory, but a 1-1 draw or a 0-1 away win are realistic alternatives. Based on the stats, value may lie with the double chance on Tatran Jakubcovice or the draw.