Mafra - CF Os Belenenses prediction 11 October 2026

This Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses prediction gives you a full breakdown of the Tercera Liga fixture on October 11, 2026, at 11:00. Based on form, head-to-head data and bookmakers' odds, CF Os Belenenses is the favourite with a 55% win probability. Mafra enters this match as the underdog despite playing at home, with only a 20% chance of victory.

Team Form

Mafra's recent results have been inconsistent. Their last five matches across all competitions read: D, L, W, D, L. In the league, they sit 9th with 7 points after a 1‑0 home win over Sporting Covilhã and a 2‑1 away loss to UD Oliveirense. At home in Tercera Liga, however, they boast a perfect record – two wins, six goals scored and none conceded.

CF Os Belenenses arrive in superb shape, having won their last five matches in a row (W-W-W-W-W). They top the table with 15 points from five games, scoring 13 and conceding just two. Their away form is equally impressive: two wins, six goals for and two against. A 2‑0 cup win at Beira Mar and a 3‑1 league victory at Vitoria de Sernache underline their strength on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical numbers heavily favour CF Os Belenenses. In eight previous meetings, Mafra have never won; there have been four draws and four wins for Os Belenenses. The last three clashes all ended in victories for the away side in this match‑up: a 3‑1 away win in May 2026, a 4‑1 away win in March 2026, and a 2‑1 home win in November 2025. Mafra have managed only two 1‑1 draws in their last five encounters with Os Belenenses.

League Table Positions

CF Os Belenenses lead the Tercera Liga with a perfect 15 points (5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, +11 goal difference). Mafra are nine places behind in 9th, having collected 7 points from five games (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, +4 goal difference). The 8‑point gap and the visitors’ 100% record make a strong case for an away win.

Win Probability: Mafra or CF Os Belenenses?

The win probability calculation combines bookmaker odds, current form and head‑to‑head data. After removing the bookmaker margin, the average raw implied odds give Mafra ~30%, a draw ~36%, and CF Os Belenenses ~34%. However, when we adjust for the visitors’ five‑match winning streak, their dominant H2H record (4 wins out of 8, 0 losses) and the 8‑point gap in the standings, the true chances shift sharply. The final assessment is: CF Os Belenenses has a 55% chance of winning, the draw sits at 25%, and Mafra has a 20% chance. CF Os Belenenses are the logical pick to win this fixture.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ pre‑match odds reflect a competitive contest but lean slightly towards the visitors. Across five operators, Mafra win odds range from 2.80 to 3.08, the draw from 2.00 to 3.20, and a CF Os Belenenses victory from 2.25 to 2.88. The unusually low draw prices highlight the expectation of a tight game.

Our prediction: based on the stats, CF Os Belenenses to win is the value pick. Mafra’s perfect home record cannot be ignored, but the gulf in overall form, the head‑to‑head dominance and the table gap point clearly to an away outcome. The draw remains a real possibility, yet the probabilities favour the away side.