Changchun Yatai - Nantong Zhiyun prediction 31 October 2026

The Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai prediction for this China League One fixture on September 26, 2026, sees the home side as the favorite with a 50% win probability based on their strong home record, while Changchun Yatai enter the match with a 20% chance and the draw sits at 30%. The match kicks off at 12:30 local time at Nantong's ground.

Team Form

Nantong Zhiyun's last five league outings show inconsistency: a 0-1 home loss to Guangxi Hengchen FC, a 3-1 away win at Wuxi Wugou, a 1-1 home draw with Guandong GZ Power FC, a 2-3 defeat at Dalian K'un City, and a dominant 4-1 home victory over Shaanxi Union. That run yields two wins, one draw, and two defeats, underscoring their up-and-down rhythm. Changchun Yatai, by contrast, are in sharper form with three wins, one draw, and one loss from their last five: a 1-1 away draw at Shenzhen Juniors FC, home wins against Heilongjiang Ice City FC (1-0) and Ningbo Professional FC Huilong (2-0), a 0-3 loss at Guandong GZ Power FC, and a thumping 6-0 home win over Foshan Nanshi. The visitors come with momentum, netting nine goals in that span while Nantong have kept only one clean sheet in five.

Head-to-Head Record

In five previous meetings, Changchun Yatai hold the upper hand with three wins and two draws; Nantong Zhiyun are yet to defeat them. The most recent clash on August 4, 2023, ended 1-1 on Changchun's turf. When hosting Changchun, Nantong have suffered: two 1-0 defeats (May 2023 in the Super League, April 2019 in the FA Cup) and a goalless draw in September 2020. The visitors have also won 4-0 at home in October 2020. This history gives Changchun a psychological edge despite Nantong's current home strength.

League Table Positions

Nantong Zhiyun sit 4th with 39 points from 23 games (10 wins,9 draws,4 losses), just six points behind leaders Guandong GZ Power FC. At home they are formidable: 3rd in the home table with 25 points from 11 outings (8 wins,1 draw,2 defeats), scoring 19 and conceding only 8. Changchun Yatai are 7th overall with 33 points (10 wins,3 draws,10 losses). Their away form is a weakness — not ranked in the top eight, with a calculated 3 wins,2 draws,6 losses on the road, 16 goals scored and20 conceded. The gap is evident: Nantong' s rock-solid defense at home meets a Changchun side that leaks goals away.

Win Probability: Nantong Zhiyun or Changchun Yatai?

After weighing all available data, Nantong Zhiyun has a50% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Changchun Yatai's win probability is20%. This estimate rests on Nantong' s elite home record (8-1-2) and the visitors' poor away stats (3-2-6), moderated by the head-to-head dominance of Changchun (0 Nantong wins in5 matches) and Nantong's tendency to draw (9 draws this season). Home advantage is the decisive factor, but history suggests a close contest, making a draw a realistic outcome. Nantong Zhiyun are more likely to secure all three points, but the match could easily finish level.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are provided in the dataset, so we base our assessment purely on team form, league position, and head-to-head. The Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai prediction leans towards a home win. With Nantong's solid defensive record at home (8 conceded) and Changchun's away vulnerabilities, a low-scoring affair is probable. The most common scoreline in their H2H is0-1 or a draw, but Nantong' s recent home firepower (4-1 vs Shaanxi) tips the scale. Our predicted outcome is a narrow Nantong Zhiyun victory, perhaps2-1.