Changchun Yatai - Yanbian Longding prediction 6 October 2026

Our Changchun Yatai vs Yanbian Longding prediction for this China. League One match on Oct 6, 2026, at 12:00, gives the home side a 42% chance of winning. The draw probability is 36%, while Yanbian Longding has a 22% chance. Bookmakers' odds also point to a tight contest, with Changchun Yatai slightly favored. We break down all the key betting tips, odds, and head-to-head stats to answer who will win.

Team Form

Changchun Yatai come into this match with mixed recent results: L, D, W, W, L in their last five outings. They suffered a 2-0 defeat away to Nantong Zhiyun on Sep 26, followed by a 1-1 draw at Shenzhen Juniors FC. At home, they have been strong, beating Heilongjiang Ice City FC 1-0 and Ningbo Professional FC Huilong 2-0. However, a 3-0 loss at Guandong GZ Power FC shows vulnerability on the road. Overall, Changchun Yatai have scored 4 goals and conceded 6 in these five matches.

Yanbian Longding, on the other hand, are in poor form with four consecutive losses before a win: L, L, L, L, W. They lost 1-2 at home to Guandong GZ Power FC, 1-2 at Guangxi Hengchen FC, 0-2 at Wuxi Wugou, and 1-3 at Shaanxi Union. Their only recent victory was a 3-2 away win at Ningbo Professional FC Huilong on Aug 22. Yanbian Longding have conceded 11 goals in their last five, scoring 6. Their defense looks shaky, especially away from home.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once before, on May 30, 2026, when Yanbian Longding hosted Changchun Yatai and the match ended in a 2-2 draw. With such limited history, recent form and league positions carry more weight in this prediction.

League Table Positions

In the China. League One standings, Yanbian Longding sit 6th with 35 points from 24 games (9 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses, goals 33:27). Changchun Yatai are 7th with 33 points (10 wins, 3 draws, 11 losses, goals 37:40). The home table shows Changchun Yatai in 6th place with 22 points from 12 home matches (7 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses), while Yanbian Longding are 4th in the away table with 17 points from 12 away games (5 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses). This suggests a balanced contest, with Changchun Yatai’s home advantage offsetting Yanbian Longding’s slightly higher overall position.

Win Probability: Changchun Yatai or Yanbian Longding?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and home/away factor, we calculate the following win probabilities: Changchun Yatai has a 42% chance of winning, the draw is at 36%, and Yanbian Longding has a 22% chance. The odds imply a close match, but Changchun Yatai’s better recent form (two wins in last five vs Yanbian’s one) and home advantage tip the balance. Yanbian Longding’s poor defensive record away from home further supports the home favorite. Therefore, Changchun Yatai is more likely to win, but a draw is also a strong possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds of 2.05 for a Changchun Yatai win, 2.10 for the draw, and 3.75 for a Yanbian Longding victory. These odds reflect the tight nature of the fixture, with the home side only marginally favored. For bettors looking for value, the draw odds of 2.10 might be attractive given the H2H draw and both teams' recent inconsistency. Our prediction: based on the stats, Changchun Yatai should edge this, but the draw cannot be ruled out. A 1-0 or 2-1 home win seems plausible, though Yanbian Longding’s occasional attacking threat could lead to a score draw.