Changwon City - Yangpyeong prediction 3 October 2026

Our Changwon City vs Yangpyeong prediction for the K-League 3 match on October 3, 2026, sees the home side as the slight favourite, with a 40% chance of taking all three points. Both teams head into the fixture in poor form and will be desperate to turn their luck around.

Team Form

Changwon City are without a win in five matches, posting four defeats and one draw. Their last result was a 2-1 away loss to Gyeongju KHNP on September 20. Before that they were beaten 3-1 at Siheung Citizen, lost 1-0 at home to Daejeon Korail, fell 4-3 at Busan Transportation Corporation, and drew 1-1 at home against Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors Reserves. With only two goals in their last three outings, the attack has been misfiring.

Yangpyeong are in an almost identical slump – four losses and one draw in their last five. Their most recent match ended in a 2-0 home defeat to Pocheon on September 13. Earlier they lost 3-1 at home to Siheung Citizen, 2-1 away at Daejeon Korail, fought out a 3-3 home draw with Gyeongju KHNP, and were overwhelmed 4-2 at home by Busan Transportation Corporation. Conceding three or more goals in three of those five games highlights serious defensive issues.

Head-to-Head Record

The three previous meetings between these clubs in the K-League 3 show complete balance – one win apiece and one draw. The most recent encounter on May 9, 2026, finished 1-0 to Yangpyeong at their ground. Changwon City won the home fixture 1-0 on July 27, 2025, while the remaining match on April 6, 2025, ended in a goalless draw. Each side has scored just one goal across those three games, so low-scoring affairs are the norm in this head-to-head.

League Table Positions

Changwon City occupy 10th place in the K-League 3 table with 26 points from 22 matches. They have recorded six wins, eight draws and eight losses, with a goal difference of 24 scored and 27 conceded. Yangpyeong do not feature among the top 12 teams in the available standings, suggesting they are positioned lower in the league and likely have a worse points total.

Win Probability: Changwon City or Yangpyeong?

Based on the available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Changwon City win – 40%, Draw – 30%, Yangpyeong win – 30%. The home advantage and a higher league standing give Changwon City a slight edge. The head-to-head record is perfectly split, and both sides arrive with identical wretched form (L,L,L,D,L). These factors push the draw probability to a significant 30%, but the home team’s marginally better league position – 10th versus an unranked Yangpyeong – flips the scale in their favour. Changwon City is therefore the more likely winner, though the match is far from a foregone conclusion.

Odds & Match Prediction

No specific odds figures are available for this K-League 3 fixture. With both teams struggling badly, bookmakers would likely price Changwon City as the betting favourite due to home status and superior league position, but the gap would be narrow. Our match prediction takes the statistical balance into account: a tight encounter where a single goal could decide it. A 1-0 or 2-1 win for Changwon City appears the most probable outcome, but a low-scoring draw is also a very realistic result given the teams’ recent struggles in front of goal and the history of defensive battles between them.