Chanthaburi - Nakhon Pathom prediction 14 October 2026

The Chanthaburi vs Nakhon Pathom prediction for October 14, 2026, points to a tightly contested Division 2 fixture in Thailand. Based on the latest form and head-to-head record, Nakhon Pathom enters this match as the favorite with a 44% win probability, while Chanthaburi holds a 42% chance of victory in front of their home crowd.

Team Form

Chanthaburi's recent form is inconsistent, with a record of one win, two draws, and two losses across their last five Division 2 matches. They are coming off a 0-0 home draw against Nong Bua Pitchaya on October 11. Before that, they suffered a narrow 4-3 away defeat to Uttaradit FC on September 20, but did manage a 2-0 home win against Kasetsart University on September 17. This mixed form has left them searching for stability.

Nakhon Pathom, meanwhile, is proving difficult to beat. In their last five Division 2 outings, they have recorded one win and four draws. Their most recent result was a 1-0 home victory over Muang Thong United on October 10. Prior to that, they played out four consecutive draws against Kasetsart University (0-0), Dragon Pathumwan Kanchanaburi FC (1-1), Phrae United (0-0), and Nakhon Ratchasima FC (2-2).

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Nakhon Pathom. In their three previous meetings, Nakhon Pathom has won all three, with Chanthaburi yet to secure a victory or even a draw. The most recent encounter on February 5, 2026, saw Nakhon Pathom claim a 2-0 home win. Earlier, on September 20, 2025, Nakhon Pathom won 3-1 away at Chanthaburi. Their first recorded meeting on July 1, 2018, also resulted in a 2-0 win for Nakhon Pathom.

League Table Positions

In the current Division 2 overall standings, Nakhon Pathom sits in 8th place with 7 points from 5 matches, having scored 4 goals and conceded 3. They are one of just two unbeaten teams in the top 12. Chanthaburi is not listed in the available overall standings, but their recent results place them lower. Nakhon Pathom's defensive solidity, conceding just 0.6 goals per game, is a key factor.

Win Probability: Chanthaburi or Nakhon Pathom?

Chanthaburi has a 42% chance of winning, the draw is at 14%, and Nakhon Pathom has a 44% chance. These probabilities are calculated using the inverse of the best available bookmaker odds (home 1.83, draw 3.10, away 5.00), normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusted based on Nakhon Pathom's perfect head-to-head record and their slightly better recent form. While the initial odds-implied probability made Chanthaburi a favorite at home, the historical dominance of Nakhon Pathom in this fixture and their unbeaten run in the league shift the balance, making the away side marginally more likely to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a competitive match. The best available odds show a home win for Chanthaburi at 1.83, a draw at 3.10, and an away win for Nakhon Pathom at 5.00. Based on the stats, including Nakhon Pathom's unbeaten league record and their three wins from three against Chanthaburi, the value may lie with the away side.