Chantilly - Biesheim prediction 3 October 2026

Our Chantilly vs Biesheim prediction for this National 1 fixture on Oct 3, 2026, at 14:30, points towards an away victory. Biesheim enters the match as the favorite with a 50% win probability, while struggling Chantilly faces an uphill battle. The odds heavily favor the visitors, but a look at the head-to-head record suggests the match could be closer than the market implies.

Team Form

Chantilly has endured a miserable run, with their last five home matches showing four losses and one draw (L-L-L-D-L). The 0-4 defeat against AS Furiani-Agliani and a 1-3 reverse to Haguenau highlight serious defensive issues – they conceded 12 goals in those four defeats. The only bright spot was a 1-1 draw with AS Montlouis.

Biesheim’s away form is mixed but slightly more encouraging: L-L-W-L-D. In their most recent road trip they lost 1-0 to Colmar, but earlier they managed an impressive 2-1 win at AS Furiani-Agliani – the same side that thrashed Chantilly. Although defeats to Beauvais (5-1) and Epinal (2-1) show vulnerability, the draw at St-Pryve St-Hilaire (1-1) and that Furiani win indicate they can compete.

Head-to-Head Record

The last three encounters between Chantilly and Biesheim all ended without a Chantilly win. The record reads: two draws and one Biesheim victory. On May 17, 2025, it finished 3-3; then Biesheim won 2-1 on Dec 6, 2025; and the most recent clash on Apr 18, 2026 ended 1-1. Biesheim is unbeaten in this fixture, and Chantilly has never beaten them in recorded meetings.

League Table Positions

Biesheim sits 12th in the National 1 standings with 5 points from 5 matches (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, goals 7:7). Their home form has been solid – 5th in the home table with 1 win and 2 draws from three games – but this is an away match. Chantilly does not appear in the top 12 at all, which, combined with their dire form, suggests they are lodged near the bottom of the table.

Win Probability: Chantilly or Biesheim?

Taking base odds (3.60, 3.50, 1.80) and removing the bookmaker margin, the fair probabilities are approximately 25% for a home win, 26% for the draw, and 50% for an away win. After adjusting for recent form – Chantilly’s four losses in five, Biesheim’s comparative stability – we shift the numbers slightly to reflect real-world chances. The final win probability is: Chantilly 22%, draw 28%, Biesheim 50%. The draw gets a small boost because of the head‑to‑head pattern (two draws in three meetings) and Biesheim’s not entirely convincing away record. Nonetheless, Biesheim is clearly the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Biesheim as the favorite, pricing an away win at 1.80, a draw at 3.50, and a home win at 3.60. Based on all the stats, a Biesheim win is the most probable outcome, but given Chantilly’s desperation and the draw-heavy H2H history, a low‑scoring draw cannot be ruled out. Our prediction is an away victory, possibly by a one‑goal margin.