Chiba FC - Chao Pak Kei prediction 26 July 2026

Looking for a Chiba FC vs Chao Pak Kei prediction? The Macao 1st Division clash is set for July 26, 2026, at 12:00 UTC. Our match analysis shows Chao Pak Kei as the clear favorite with an estimated 65% win probability, while Chiba FC faces an uphill battle at home.

Team Form

Chiba FC has been inconsistent in their last five league matches, recording two wins, two losses, and one draw (W-L-D-L-W). They beat Gorilla Of The Universe 6-0 and Artilheiros FC 3-1, but suffered a 0-3 loss to GALA Jia Hua and a 1-2 defeat at Benfica De Macau. A 1-1 draw with Cheng Fung rounds off the run. At home this season, Chiba FC have played 5 games, winning 2, drawing 1, and losing 2, scoring 13 and conceding 9.

Chao Pak Kei, on the other hand, is in superb form with four wins and a draw in their last five (D-W-W-W-W). They drew 2-2 at GALA Jia Hua, then demolished Cheng Fung 6-1 away, beat Benfica De Macau 3-1, crushed Artilheiros FC 10-1 on the road, and defeated Hang Sai 3-0 at home. Their away record is almost perfect: 4 wins and 1 loss in 5 trips, with 27 goals scored and only 4 conceded.

Head-to-Head Record

The two teams have met twice in the Macao 1st Division, and both matches took place at Chao Pak Kei’s home. The most recent H2H ended in a 0-0 draw on April 26, 2026, while the previous encounter on March 13, 2025, saw Chao Pak Kei win 4-0. Chiba FC has yet to beat Chao Pak Kei, with the away side holding a psychological edge.

League Table Positions

In the overall 1st Division standings, Chao Pak Kei sits 2nd with 28 points from 12 matches (9W-1D-2L), having scored 57 goals and conceded just 9. Chiba FC is 4th with 21 points (6W-3D-3L), scoring 33 and allowing 21. The home/away split further favors the visitors: Chiba FC’s home record is 2W-1D-2L (7 points from 5 games), while Chao Pak Kei’s away record is 4W-0D-1L (12 points from 5 games). The goal difference away from home for Chao Pak Kei is +23 (27-4), highlighting their dominance.

Win Probability: Chiba FC or Chao Pak Kei?

After evaluating all available data, we estimate the win probabilities for this match as follows:

• Chiba FC win: 15%
• Draw: 20%
• Chao Pak Kei win: 65%

This calculation considers the teams’ contrasting form (Chao Pak Kei’s 13 points from last 5 games vs Chiba FC’s 7), the H2H record (Chao Pak Kei unbeaten in two meetings), the massive gap in goal difference, and the home/away performance tables. Chiba FC’s home advantage is not enough to offset Chao Pak Kei’s superior scoring power and defensive solidity. Therefore, Chao Pak Kei is the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds for this fixture are not currently available. However, based on the statistical breakdown, Chao Pak Kei would be heavy favorites if odds were listed. The expected match outcome is an away win, and given Chao Pak Kei’s average of over 4 goals per game in their last four wins, a high-scoring contest with over 2.5 total goals is also probable. In terms of betting tips, the stats point firmly to an away win and possibly over 2.5 goals. Our final Chiba FC vs Chao Pak Kei prediction: Chao Pak Kei to win.