Chasetown - Padiham prediction 22 September 2026

This Chasetown vs Padiham prediction covers the Northern Division One match on Sep 22, 2026 at 19:45. The home side Chasetown are the bookmakers' favorite, and our model gives them a 45% chance of winning, with the draw at 33% and Padiham at 22%.

Team Form

Chasetown have managed only one win in their last five results (W, L, L, L, D). Their recent matches include:

• Sep 16: Shifnal Town 1-4 Chasetown (W)
• Sep 12: Loughborough University 4-3 Chasetown (L, FA Trophy)
• Sep 8: Chasetown 1-2 Kidsgrove Athletic (L)
• Sep 5: Clitheroe 3-2 Chasetown (L)
• Aug 25: Newcastle Town 1-1 Chasetown (D)

Padiham's last five results are L, W, D, W, L. Their recent matches include:

• Aug 29: Padiham 0-7 Pontefract Collieries (L, FA Trophy)
• Aug 25: Atherton Collieries 0-1 Padiham (W)
• Aug 11: Prescot Cables 1-1 Padiham (D)
• Jul 10, 2021: Padiham 4-2 Ramsbottom United (W, friendly)
• Sep 29, 2020: Padiham 0-6 Chester (L, friendly)

Head-to-Head Record

The available head-to-head data shows no previous meetings between Chasetown and Padiham. The record is 0 Chasetown wins, 0 draws, and 0 Padiham wins, so this is a first meeting in the supplied data set. With no head-to-head history, recent form and home advantage carry more weight in this Chasetown vs Padiham prediction.

League Table Positions

Chasetown sit 8th in the overall Northern Division One table with 60 points from 41 matches (17 wins, 9 draws, 15 losses; 55 goals scored and 51 conceded). At home they rank 6th with 35 points from 21 home games (10 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses; 32 goals scored and 20 conceded). Padiham are not listed in the top 12 overall standings or the top 8 away standings in the JSON data.

Win Probability: Chasetown or Padiham?

Using the 1X2 odds and normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin, the base implied chances are about 41–44% for Chasetown, 37–38% for the draw, and 19–21% for Padiham. After adjusting for home advantage, recent form, and league positions, the win probability is Chasetown 45%, draw 33%, and Padiham 22%.

Chasetown are more likely to win than Padiham, but the draw is also a significant outcome. Their poor recent form and Padiham's away league results mean this is not a one-sided match outcome.

Odds & Chasetown vs Padiham Prediction

Bookmakers see Chasetown as the favorite. The 1X2 betting odds list Chasetown between 2.00 and 2.20, the draw between 2.38 and 2.40, and Padiham between 4.33 and 4.60.

• Chasetown win odds: 2.00 – 2.20
• Draw odds: 2.38 – 2.40
• Padiham win odds: 4.33 – 4.60

Our final prediction: based on the stats, a Chasetown win is the most likely single result, but the 45% probability is not overwhelming. For betting tips, the draw at 33% and Padiham at 22% offer value against the favorite's short odds. For total goals context, Chasetown have scored 32 and conceded 20 in 21 home matches.