Cherno More Varna - Levski Sofia prediction 11 October 2026
Cherno More Varna
Levski SofiaCherno More Varna
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CSKA Sofia | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 29:9 | +20 | 30 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 23:4 | +19 | 28 |
| 3 |  Ludogorets Razgrad | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 21:9 | +12 | 26 |
| 4 |  CSKA 1948 Sofia | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25:13 | +12 | 25 |
| 5 |  Botev Plovdiv | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17:18 | -1 | 19 |
| 6 |  FC Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15:17 | -2 | 17 |
| 7 |  Spartak Varna | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11:17 | -6 | 13 |
| 8 |  Slavia Sofia | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 9:9 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 |  Dunav Ruse | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15:21 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 |  Botev Vratsa | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10:21 | -11 | 10 |
| 11 |  Lokomotiv Sofia | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 13:20 | -7 | 9 |
| 12 |  Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 6:14 | -8 | 9 |
| 13 |  Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10:21 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11:22 | -11 | 6 |
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia Prediction (Oct 11)
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia prediction for the 1st League match on Oct 11, 2026. Based on the stats, Levski Sofia is the clear favorite with a 60% win probability, while Cherno More Varna has just a 12% chance.
Team Form
Cherno More Varna's recent form is inconsistent. In their last five matches, they have recorded one win, two draws, and two losses (L,W,D,D,L). A heavy 5-0 friendly defeat to Ludogorets Razgrad on October 4 was followed by a 1-0 friendly win over Dunav Ruse. In the 1st League, they drew 1-1 away at FC Arda Kardzhali and 2-2 at home to Lokomotiv Sofia, before losing 1-0 at Lokomotiv Plovdiv on September 6. The team has struggled for consistency, particularly in attack.
Levski Sofia, on the other hand, are in strong form. Their last five results: D,L,D,W,W. They drew 0-0 at home with Ludogorets Razgrad and 0-0 away at Botev Vratsa in the league, while losing 1-0 at home to Red Bull Salzburg in the UEFA Europa League. However, they secured back-to-back 1st League wins against CSKA 1948 Sofia (1-0) and Slavia Sofia (2-1). Levski are unbeaten in the league this season and have won their last two domestic games.
Head-to-Head Record
The historical head-to-head record heavily favors Levski Sofia. In 41 meetings, Levski have won 23 times, Cherno More Varna have won 9, and there have been 9 draws. Looking at the last five encounters:
- Mar 21, 2026: Levski Sofia 2-1 Cherno More Varna
- Oct 19, 2025: Cherno More Varna 1-3 Levski Sofia
- May 26, 2025: Cherno More Varna 0-0 Levski Sofia
- May 10, 2025: Levski Sofia 2-0 Cherno More Varna
- Apr 13, 2025: Levski Sofia 1-2 Cherno More Varna
Levski have won three of the last five, with one draw and one Cherno More victory. The trend clearly points to an away win.
League Table Positions
Levski Sofia sit at the top of the 1st League table with 25 points from 9 matches (8 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). They have scored 21 goals and conceded only 4. Cherno More Varna are not in the top 12 of the standings, indicating a significant gap in quality and form. Levski's away record is also impressive: 3 wins and 1 draw from 4 games, with 7 goals scored and 3 conceded.
Win Probability: Cherno More Varna or Levski Sofia?
Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:
- Cherno More Varna win: 12%
- Draw: 28%
- Levski Sofia win: 60%
Levski Sofia are the clear favorites. The bookmakers' average odds imply a 46% away win chance, but after adjusting for Levski's dominant league form, unbeaten record, and Cherno More's absence from the top half of the table, the probability rises to 60%. Cherno More's home advantage is minimal given their recent results, and the draw is a realistic but less likely outcome.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see Levski Sofia as the strong favorite. The average odds across multiple bookmakers are: Cherno More Varna win at 6.00, draw at 2.36, and Levski Sofia win at 1.97. These odds reflect the gulf in class. Our prediction: based on the stats, Levski Sofia are expected to win this 1st League clash. The away side's defensive solidity and attacking form make them the most likely victors.
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia โ FAQ
- Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia?
- Levski Sofia are the most likely winners with a 60% probability. Cherno More Varna have just a 12% chance, while the draw is at 28%. This is based on Levski's top league position, strong away form, and dominant head-to-head record.
- What is the win probability for Levski Sofia?
- Levski Sofia have a 60% chance of winning this match. This high probability reflects their unbeaten league record, top spot in the 1st League, and Cherno More Varna's poor form and lower table position.
- When is the Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia match?
- The match takes place on October 11, 2026, at 15:30 local time. It is a 1st League fixture in Bulgaria.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The average odds are 6.00 for a Cherno More Varna win, 2.36 for a draw, and 1.97 for a Levski Sofia victory. These odds highlight Levski as the clear favorite.
- What is the head-to-head record between Cherno More Varna and Levski Sofia?
- Levski Sofia lead the head-to-head with 23 wins, while Cherno More Varna have 9 wins and there have been 9 draws. In the last five meetings, Levski won three, with one draw and one Cherno More win.