Poole Town - Chertsey Town prediction 27 October 2026

The Chertsey Town vs Poole Town prediction for September 29, 2026, sees Southern League Premier Division action at Alwyns Lane. Chertsey Town are the slight favourites with a 42% win probability, but Poole Town’s strong away form and dominant head-to-head record make this a tight contest.

Team Form

Chertsey Town

Chertsey Town’s last five outings read D, D, W, W, L. They drew 2-2 at Welling United in the FA Trophy on Sep 26 and 2-2 at Chichester City in the league on Sep 22. A 5-0 home thrashing of Malvern Town on Sep 12 was a highlight, and they beat Carshalton Athletic 2-1 away in the FA Cup on Sep 7. The 4-1 defeat at Hanworth Villa on Aug 31 was a setback. At home in the league this season, they have recorded two wins, one draw, and one loss.

Poole Town

Poole Town come into this match with D, W, L, W, W across their last five. A 0-0 home draw with Wimborne Town on Sep 22 was a rare blank, preceded by a 1-0 win at Havant & Waterlooville. Their away form has been particularly impressive – three wins and one loss in four away league fixtures, scoring six and conceding five goals. The sole recent away defeat was 2-0 at Plymouth Parkway on Aug 31, but they have since bounced back, beating Yate Town 2-1 at home and Berkhamsted 3-2 away.

Head-to-Head Record

The four previous meetings between these sides point decisively towards Poole Town, who have won three to Chertsey Town’s one, with no draws. The most recent clash on Apr 11, 2026, finished 1-0 to Poole Town at Chertsey’s ground. Earlier that season, Poole triumphed 1-0 at home on Sep 6, 2025, and 3-1 at home on Apr 26, 2025. Chertsey’s sole success was a 2-1 home victory on Jan 14, 2025. Overall, Poole have outscored Chertsey 5-3 across these four encounters.

League Table Positions

In the Southern League Premier Division, Chertsey Town sit 4th with 14 points from 8 matches (4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses), scoring 19 and conceding 12. Their home record reads 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (7 pts, 11 goals for, 4 against). Poole Town are 10th with 12 points from 7 games (4 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses), with 8 goals scored and 9 conceded. Astonishingly, Poole top the away table – 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 9 points from 4 away trips (6 goals for, 5 against). Chertsey’s away form is also solid, but this match pits a good home side against the league’s best travelling team.

Win Probability: Chertsey Town or Poole Town?

Chertsey Town has a 42% chance of winning, the draw is at 26%, and Poole Town has a 32% chance. These probabilities were derived from bookmakers' odds – which implied home win 45.6%, draw 25.8%, away win 28.7% after removing the margin – and then adjusted for recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions. Poole Town’s dominant away record (9 points from 12) and their perfect three wins in the last four H2H meetings significantly reduce Chertsey’s edge. Conversely, Chertsey’s solid home goal difference (+7) and higher overall points per game keep them as the marginal favourite. The high draw probability reflects Chertsey’s two recent stalemates and the tight nature of the match-up.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Chertsey Town as the favourite with odds of 1.95, a draw at 3.45, and a Poole Town win at 3.10. These prices underline the competitive nature of the fixture. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a narrow Chertsey Town victory, but a draw or Poole Town exploiting their away form are credible alternatives. Our recommendation is to approach this match with caution; the value might lie in the draw or even the away result given Poole’s head-to-head superiority.