Sheppey United - Chertsey Town prediction 3 October 2026

Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town prediction: The FA Cup match on Oct 3, 2026, at 15:00 sees Chertsey Town as the favorite with a 44% win probability, while home side Sheppey United has a 24% chance. The draw is rated at 32%.

Team Form

Sheppey United's last five results: L, W, W, D, D. Their most recent outing was a 0-3 home defeat to Herne Bay on Aug 25, 2026. Before that, they recorded two wins — 2-0 away at Beckenham Town (Oct 21, 2025) and 2-1 at home against Folkestone Invicta (Jul 8, 2025) — followed by consecutive draws: 0-0 at Lancing (Dec 7, 2024) and 1-1 at Erith Town (Nov 5, 2024).

• Aug 25, 2026: Sheppey United 0-3 Herne Bay (L)
• Oct 21, 2025: Beckenham Town 0-2 Sheppey United (W)
• Jul 8, 2025: Sheppey United 2-1 Folkestone Invicta (W)
• Dec 7, 2024: Lancing 0-0 Sheppey United (D)
• Nov 5, 2024: Erith Town 1-1 Sheppey United (D)

Chertsey Town's recent form reads L, D, D, W, W. They lost 1-3 at home to Poole Town on Sep 29, 2026. Prior to that, they drew 2-2 away at Welling United (Sep 26) and 2-2 at Chichester City (Sep 22), then posted two strong wins: 5-0 at home against Malvern Town (Sep 12) and 2-1 away at Carshalton Athletic (Sep 7).

• Sep 29, 2026: Chertsey Town 1-3 Poole Town (L)
• Sep 26, 2026: Welling United 2-2 Chertsey Town (D)
• Sep 22, 2026: Chichester City 2-2 Chertsey Town (D)
• Sep 12, 2026: Chertsey Town 5-0 Malvern Town (W)
• Sep 7, 2026: Carshalton Athletic 1-2 Chertsey Town (W)

Head-to-Head Record

There are no previous meetings between Sheppey United and Chertsey Town, making this their first head-to-head encounter. The H2H record stands at 0 wins for Sheppey United, 0 draws, and 0 wins for Chertsey Town.

Win Probability: Sheppey United or Chertsey Town?

Based on bookmaker odds and recent form, the win probabilities are: Sheppey United 24%, draw 32%, Chertsey Town 44%. The away side Chertsey Town is the favorite, reflecting their stronger recent performances and lower odds across all bookmakers. Home advantage gives Sheppey United a chance, but the stats point to an away win. The calculation uses the inverse of the average odds, normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, then adjusted for team form and the lack of H2H history.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds range from 3.25 to 4.25 for a Sheppey United home win, 2.42 to 3.90 for the draw, and 1.80 to 2.10 for a Chertsey Town away victory. The odds clearly favor Chertsey Town. Our prediction: Chertsey Town is more likely to win, but a draw is also a significant possibility. A Sheppey United win would be an upset based on the available data.