Chivas Guadalajara Women - Juarez Women prediction 5 October 2026

Chivas Guadalajara Women vs Juarez Women prediction: this Liga MX Women match on October 5, 2026, kicks off at 00:00 local time. Based on our analysis of odds, form, and head-to-head data, Juarez Women are slight favorites with a 35% win probability, while the draw also stands at 35%, leaving Chivas Guadalajara Women with a 30% chance.

Team Form

Chivas Guadalajara Women have posted three wins and two losses in their last five outings (W, W, L, W, L). Notably, both defeats came at home — a 2-3 loss to Monterrey Women and a 0-2 reverse against Unam Pumas Women. Away from home, they have been strong, winning all three recent road games.

Juarez Women are in flawless form with five consecutive victories (W, W, W, W, W). They have kept four clean sheets in that run, conceding just once in a 5-1 thrashing of Tijuana Women. Their away record in this sequence includes 2-0 and 1-0 wins, showing defensive solidity on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The last three meetings between these sides have all gone the way of Chivas Guadalajara Women or ended level. The home team has 1 win and 2 draws, while Juarez Women are yet to record a victory. The most recent clash, on April 21, 2026, finished 1-1 at Juarez. At this venue, Chivas won 1-0 in August 2025 and drew 0-0 in January 2025.

League Table Positions

In the overall Liga MX Women standings, Juarez Women sit 4th with 21 points (7 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses; goals 14:6). Chivas Guadalajara Women (listed as Guadalajara W) are 6th with 18 points (6 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; goals 20:11). Juarez also boast a perfect home record (5 wins from 5), but this match is away. Chivas’s recent home form is a concern, with two straight home defeats.

Win Probability: Chivas Guadalajara Women or Juarez Women?

Chivas Guadalajara Women has a 30% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Juarez Women has a 35% chance. These probabilities are derived from average bookmaker odds (home 2.53, draw 2.39, away 3.29), then adjusted for Juarez’s superior current form and league position, but tempered by Chivas’s unbeaten home H2H record against this opponent. The data points to a very tight contest where a draw is a strong possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ average odds are 2.53 for a Chivas Guadalajara Women win, 2.39 for the draw, and 3.29 for a Juarez Women victory. The market sees the draw as the most likely single outcome. Our prediction aligns with that view: based on the stats, Juarez Women’s five-match winning run makes them marginal favorites, but Chivas’s historical edge at home suggests a stalemate is the safest call. A low-scoring draw or a narrow Juarez win are the most probable scenarios.