Chojniczanka Chojnice - Podhale Nowy Targ prediction 9 October 2026

The Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Podhale Nowy Targ prediction for the II Liga match on October 9, 2026, suggests a very evenly matched contest. Based on our analysis of odds, team form, and head-to-head data, Podhale Nowy Targ holds a slight 35% chance of winning, while Chojniczanka Chojnice has a 33% probability, with a draw at 32%.

Team Form

Chojniczanka Chojnice come into this match with mixed results: two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five outings. They scored an impressive 5-1 away win at Swit Skolwin Szczecin on September 12 and a 3-1 home victory over Olimpia Grudziadz a week later, but their most recent match ended in a 3-1 defeat at Gornik Leczna.

Podhale Nowy Targ have been in stronger form, winning four of their last five matches. Their only blip was a 3-0 away loss to Legia Warszawa II on September 19, but they bounced back with home wins over Stal Stalowa Wola (5-0) and Sandecja Nowy Sacz (2-1), as well as a 2-1 home success against Rekord Bielsko-Biala on October 3. Over the five matches, they scored 12 goals and conceded just 6.

Head-to-Head Record

The teams have met three times previously, with Podhale Nowy Targ unbeaten (2 wins, 1 draw). In the most recent encounter, a Cup tie on August 5, 2026, Podhale won 2-0 at home. The only previous fixture at Chojniczanka’s stadium, an II Liga game on October 25, 2025, ended in a goalless draw. Chojniczanka have yet to beat Podhale.

League Table Positions

In the Polish II Liga overall standings, Podhale Nowy Targ sit 4th with 17 points from 10 matches (5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). Chojniczanka Chojnice are 11th with 14 points (4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses). The goal differences are similar: Podhale +2 (20-18), Chojniczanka level (17-17). At home, Chojniczanka have a record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from five games, while Podhale’s away form stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses from four trips.

Win Probability: Chojniczanka Chojnice or Podhale Nowy Targ?

Using the available odds as a starting point – removing the bookmaker margin and normalizing – the implied probabilities are roughly 37% for a home win, 34% for a draw, and 29% for an away win. However, adjusting for Podhale Nowy Targ’s superior recent form (4 wins in 5) and their unbeaten head-to-head record, the away side’s chances increase. We therefore estimate the win probability for Chojniczanka Chojnice at 33%, the draw at 32%, and Podhale Nowy Targ at 35%.

The head-to-head history, combined with Podhale’s confidence from back-to-back wins, gives the visitors a marginal edge. Yet the match is too close to confidently pick a winner, making the draw a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds reflect the tight nature of this fixture. One set of current odds lists a home win at 2.10, a draw at 2.92, and an away win at 2.67. Other bookies have the 1X2 line ranging from 2.10 to 2.35 for Chojniczanka, 2.30 to 2.92 for the draw, and 2.67 to 3.05 for Podhale.

Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a narrow win for Podhale Nowy Targ, but with the draw a very close second. This Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Podhale Nowy Targ betting tip suggests that backing “Draw No Bet” on Podhale or the draw could offer value, but bettors should note that Chojniczanka’s home advantage could still produce a surprise.