AD Tarma - Cienciano prediction 23 September 2026

The AD Tarma vs Cienciano prediction for September 23, 2026, points to a tight Primera Division clash where the visitors hold a slight edge. Based on our analysis, Cienciano has a 38% chance of winning, a draw is at 37%, and AD Tarma has a 25% win probability. The match kicks off at 21:00 local time at Estadio Unión Tarma.

Team Form

AD Tarma are in dreadful form, with four losses and one draw in their last five matches. They suffered a 2-0 defeat at Alianza Lima on Sep 19, a 3-0 loss at FBC Melgar, a 1-3 home loss to Sport Huancayo, a 5-1 thrashing at Juan Pablo II, and a 1-1 home draw with Alianza Atletico. The team has conceded 14 goals in these five games, highlighting defensive frailties.

Cienciano’s recent results are mixed but better. Their last five: a 0-0 home draw with Los Chankas CYC, a 3-0 away loss to Montevideo City Torque in the Copa Sudamericana, a 2-0 home win over the same opponent, a 5-2 away victory at FC Cajamarca, and a 1-2 home defeat to Cusco FC. The away form shows a heavy loss and a big win, so inconsistency is a concern.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last nine meetings across all competitions, AD Tarma have won just once, Cienciano have won three times, and five matches ended in draws. The most recent encounter on April 4, 2026, saw Cienciano win 3-2 at home. The previous five H2H results: AD Tarma 1-0 Cienciano (Jul 2025), AD Tarma 1-1 Cienciano (Copa Sudamericana, Mar 2025), Cienciano 2-2 AD Tarma (Feb 2025), and AD Tarma 1-1 Cienciano (Feb 2024). Draws are a recurring theme, with three of the last five ending level.

League Table Positions

The Primera Division standings currently show all teams with 0 points, as the new season has not yet begun or the table is reset. Therefore, no league position advantage can be assessed for this fixture.

Win Probability: AD Tarma or Cienciano?

After analyzing the odds, recent form, and head-to-head record, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• AD Tarma win: 25%
• Draw: 37%
• Cienciano win: 38%

Bookmakers’ average odds of 3.02 for a home win, 2.49 for the draw, and 2.49 for an away win imply fair probabilities of 29.2%, 35.4%, and 35.4% respectively after removing the margin. However, AD Tarma’s terrible form (four losses in five) and poor defensive record force a downward adjustment. Cienciano’s slightly better results and historical edge (3 wins to 1 in H2H) push their chance just above the draw. The high frequency of draws in this matchup (5 of 9 all-time) supports a strong draw probability. Overall, Cienciano is the most likely winner, but a stalemate is almost equally probable.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match see AD Tarma priced between 2.75 and 3.22, the draw between 2.18 and 3.63, and Cienciano between 2.23 and 2.62. The market views this as a very open contest, with the draw and away win closely matched. Based on the stats, our prediction is a draw or a narrow Cienciano victory. AD Tarma’s leaky defense and lack of confidence make them hard to back, while Cienciano’s inconsistency on the road tempers expectations. A low-scoring draw is a realistic outcome.