Leones de Rosario - Club Mercedes prediction 26 October 2026

Leones de Rosario vs Club Mercedes prediction for the Primera C Metropolitana match on Oct 26 at 18:00. Based on the stats, Leones de Rosario has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Club Mercedes has a 20% chance. The bookmakers see a tight contest, but the home advantage gives Leones de Rosario the edge.

Team Form

Leones de Rosario's last five results are L, W, W, L, D. They lost 2-1 away to Club Mercedes on Oct 17, then beat CA Fenix Pilar 2-1 at home on Oct 12. A 2-0 away win at Sportivo Barracas on Oct 5 was followed by a 1-0 home loss to Club Lujan on Sep 28. Their run started with a 1-1 draw at General Lamadrid on Sep 20. This form shows inconsistency with two wins, two losses, and a draw.

Club Mercedes comes into this match with form of W, W, D, D, W. They beat Leones de Rosario 2-1 at home on Oct 17 and CA Lugano 1-0 at home on Oct 12. Two 1-1 draws away at Deportivo Paraguayo on Oct 5 preceded a 1-0 home win over Puerto Nuevo on Sep 25. Club Mercedes are unbeaten in five, with three wins and two draws, showing strong recent momentum.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is limited to one recent meeting. Club Mercedes won 2-1 at home against Leones de Rosario on Oct 17 in the Primera C Metropolitana. This gives Club Mercedes a psychological advantage, with 1 away win and 0 wins for Leones de Rosario in the H2H.

League Table Positions

In the overall Primera C Metropolitana standings, Leones de Rosario sit 5th with 51 points from 32 matches (13 wins, 12 draws, 7 losses). Club Mercedes are 10th with 47 points (12 wins, 11 draws, 9 losses). The 4-point gap highlights Leones de Rosario's slightly better campaign. At home, Leones de Rosario are not in the top 8 home standings, while Club Mercedes rank 5th in home form with 30 points from 16 home games. Away from home, Leones de Rosario rank 4th with 25 points from 16 away matches, a strong record that boosts their chances here.

Win Probability: Leones de Rosario or Club Mercedes?

Leones de Rosario has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Club Mercedes has a 20% chance. These probabilities are calculated from the inverse of the best available odds (home 2.50, draw 1.88, away 4.50), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, then adjusted for form and H2H. Leones de Rosario's strong 4th-ranked away form and home advantage increase their likelihood, while Club Mercedes' recent H2H win and unbeaten run are factored in. The draw probability is high due to the tight odds and both teams' tendency for stalemates.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best odds available show a home win for Leones de Rosario at 2.60, a draw at 1.88, and an away win for Club Mercedes at 5.00. Bookmakers see the draw as the most likely single outcome, with Leones de Rosario as favorites over Club Mercedes. Based on the stats, the prediction leans towards a home win or draw, with Leones de Rosario more likely to secure the victory given their league position and home status.