Orlando City - Columbus Crew prediction 11 October 2026

Columbus Crew vs Orlando City prediction for the Open Cup match on Sep 16, 2026 at 23:00 UTC. Based on the odds and current form, Columbus Crew has a 38% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Orlando City has a 34% chance. Columbus Crew are the slight favorite, but Orlando City's strong run makes this a close betting contest.

Team Form

Columbus Crew

Columbus Crew come into this match with 1 win and 4 losses in their last five. Their last five results are: 0-1 loss to New York Red Bulls on Sep 12, 1-2 loss at D.C. United on Sep 9, 3-0 win over Colorado Rapids on Sep 5, 1-3 loss to New England Revolution on Aug 30, and 2-3 loss at Nashville on Aug 23.

Orlando City

Orlando City are in much stronger form with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last five. Their results are: 3-0 win over Toronto FC on Sep 12, 3-2 win at Atlanta United on Sep 9, 1-0 win over San Diego FC on Sep 5, 3-3 draw at Minnesota United on Aug 30, and 2-1 win over Real Salt Lake on Aug 22.

Head-to-Head Record

In the head-to-head record, Orlando City holds an edge with 13 wins, while Columbus Crew have 10 wins and there have been 5 draws. The last five meetings also favor Orlando City: Columbus Crew 1-1 Orlando City on Apr 12, 2026; Orlando City 1-1 Columbus Crew on Oct 4, 2025; Columbus Crew 1-3 Orlando City on Jul 25, 2025; Orlando City 0-0 Columbus Crew on Nov 25, 2023; and Orlando City 4-3 Columbus Crew on Sep 16, 2023.

League Table Positions

This Open Cup tie is not decided by league table points, so no league position gaps apply in the data. The main signals are the odds, the recent MLS form, and the head-to-head record above.

Win Probability: Columbus Crew vs Orlando City Prediction

Normalizing the available 1X2 odds produces an initial probability of roughly 42% for Columbus Crew, 30% for the draw, and 28% for Orlando City. Those percentages remove the bookmaker margin. Adjusting for team form and head-to-head splits the gap: Columbus Crew 38%, draw 28%, Orlando City 34%.

Bookmakers see Columbus Crew as the favorite, but Orlando City's 4W1D form and 13-10 head-to-head advantage move the forecast closer. The home edge keeps Columbus Crew slightly ahead, yet the draw is also live given the recent 1-1 and 0-0 H2H results.

Conclusion: Columbus Crew are the most likely winner at 38%, but Orlando City at 34% are close enough that this Open Cup match is far from one-sided.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available 1X2 odds range from 2.00 to 2.25 for a Columbus Crew win, 2.40 to 3.86 for the draw, and 2.90 to 3.40 for an Orlando City win. For betting tips, the 1X2 market is the core angle: bookmakers favor Columbus Crew, but Orlando City's form suggests backing the draw or away win has value. Based on the stats, the final prediction is a narrow Columbus Crew lean, with the draw and Orlando City outcomes both close.