Comerciantes Unidos - Juan Pablo II prediction 10 October 2026

Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II prediction for the Primera Division match on Oct 10, 2026, at 21:30. Based on the stats, Comerciantes Unidos are the favorites with a 38% win probability, while Juan Pablo II have a 29% chance and the draw is at 33%.

Team Form

Comerciantes Unidos come into this match with poor recent form. In their last five matches, they have recorded one win, one draw, and three losses. The sequence reads L, L, D, L, W. They lost 2-1 away to Alianza Atletico, 0-1 at home to Sport Huancayo, drew 2-2 away at Universitario De Deportes, lost 2-3 at home to FC Cajamarca, and finally won 3-1 away at UTC Cajamarca. Only one victory in five outings highlights their struggles.

Juan Pablo II, on the other hand, are in excellent form. Their last five results are W, W, D, W, W. They thrashed Cesar Vallejo Moquegua 4-0 at home, won 2-1 away at UTC Cajamarca, drew 1-1 at home with Alianza Lima, edged a 4-3 thriller away at Los Chankas CYC, and demolished AD Tarma 5-1 at home. With four wins and a draw, the visitors carry significant momentum.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met four times in recent seasons. Comerciantes Unidos lead the head-to-head with 2 wins, while Juan Pablo II have 1 win, and there has been 1 draw. The most recent encounter, on Apr 18, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw. Before that, Comerciantes Unidos won 1-0 away on Oct 24, 2025, and 3-0 at home on Jun 22, 2025. Juan Pablo II's sole victory came in the Segunda Division on Oct 13, 2024, a 2-1 home win. Overall, Comerciantes Unidos hold a slight historical edge.

Win Probability: Comerciantes Unidos or Juan Pablo II?

Using the latest odds as a base and adjusting for team form and head-to-head record, the win probabilities are calculated as follows: Comerciantes Unidos have a 38% chance of winning, the draw stands at 33%, and Juan Pablo II have a 29% chance. The odds implied a home win probability around 43%, but the hosts' poor form (one win in five) reduces that figure. Juan Pablo II's strong run of four wins in five boosts their chances significantly. The draw remains a realistic outcome given the most recent H2H result. In conclusion, Comerciantes Unidos are slightly more likely to win, but the match is far from one-sided.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Comerciantes Unidos as the favorite. The best available odds for a home win range from 1.78 to 1.85, the draw is priced around 2.25, and an away win for Juan Pablo II can be found between 3.75 and 4.00. These odds reflect the home advantage and historical H2H, but the visitors' form suggests value in the double chance market. Based on the stats, a home win is the most probable single outcome, yet a draw or even an away upset cannot be ruled out. Our prediction: Comerciantes Unidos to win, but with caution.