Aguara - Comunal Cabrero prediction 27 September 2026

The Aguara vs Comunal Cabrero prediction for this Tercera Division encounter on Sep 11 leans toward the home side. With a calculated 45% win probability, Aguara enters as the favorite, while Comunal Cabrero holds a 25% chance and the draw sits at 30%.

Team Form

Aguara’s last five results show inconsistency: W, L, D, L, W. They defeated CDS Constitucion Unido 2-0 at home on Aug 30 but then fell 4-3 away to Puente Alto. A 1-1 draw with CD Rancagua Sur, a 2-1 loss to Deportes Naval, and a 1-0 home win over Chimbarongo complete the picture. At home, Aguara has won two of their last three, scoring four goals and keeping two clean sheets.

Comunal Cabrero’s recent form reads L, W, D, D, D. A heavy 5-1 away loss to CD Rancagua Sur on Aug 22 was followed by a 4-0 home rout of Deportes Naval. Three consecutive draws—1-1 vs Malleco Unido, 0-0 vs Malleco Unido again, and 1-1 away to Imperial Unido—highlight a side that struggles to turn draws into wins. On the road, Comunal Cabrero haven’t kept a clean sheet in two of their last three away matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The last three meetings between these teams have all ended in home wins. The H2H record stands at 1 win for Aguara and 2 wins for Comunal Cabrero, with no draws.

• Jun 13, 2026: Comunal Cabrero 1-0 Aguara
• Oct 11, 2025: Aguara 2-1 Comunal Cabrero
• Jun 20, 2025: Comunal Cabrero 3-2 Aguara

Aguara’s only home meeting produced a victory. This pattern supports the home side’s edge in the fixture.

Win Probability: Aguara or Comunal Cabrero?

Without published odds, we derived probabilities from recent form, head-to-head data, and the home/away factor. Aguara’s home advantage, combined with Comunal Cabrero’s solitary away win in their last five outings, shifts the balance. The calculated chances: Aguara win 45%, draw 30%, Comunal Cabrero win 25%. Aguara’s higher percentage reflects their ability to get results at home and the H2H trend. Comunal Cabrero’s share stays limited due to poor away form, while a draw remains a realistic outcome given their three stalemates in five matches.

Odds & Match Prediction

The specific 1X2 odds for Aguara vs Comunal Cabrero are not available in the current data. Bookmakers typically release odds nearer to the fixture. Based on the stats we have, the most likely match outcome is an Aguara win. The home team’s attacking edge and Comunal Cabrero’s defensive lapses on the road point to a narrow victory for Aguara, though a draw cannot be discounted.