Congo DR - Uganda prediction 5 October 2026

Congo DR vs Uganda prediction for the Friendly International match on October 5, 2026. The match kicks off at 14:00 local time, just three days after these sides met in the same competition. Based on the latest odds and team form, Congo DR is the favorite with a 48% win probability, while Uganda has a 24% chance and the draw stands at 28%.

Team Form

Congo DR

Congo DR's last five matches:

• Oct 2, 2026: Congo DR 0-2 Uganda (Friendly) – L
• Sep 28, 2026: Zimbabwe 1-2 Congo DR (African Cup of Nations) – W
• Sep 24, 2026: Congo DR 2-0 Equatorial Guinea (African Cup of Nations) – W
• Jul 1, 2026: England 2-1 Congo DR (World Cup) – L
• Jun 28, 2026: Congo DR 3-1 Uzbekistan (World Cup) – W

Overall, Congo DR have won three of their last five, but the recent home loss to Uganda raises questions about their defensive stability.

Uganda

Uganda's last five matches:

• Oct 2, 2026: Congo DR 0-2 Uganda (Friendly) – W
• Sep 29, 2026: Uganda 1-0 Libya (African Cup of Nations) – W
• Sep 24, 2026: Tunisia 1-1 Uganda (African Cup of Nations) – D
• Dec 30, 2025: Uganda 1-3 Nigeria (African Cup of Nations) – L
• Dec 27, 2025: Uganda 1-1 Tanzania (African Cup of Nations) – D

Uganda are unbeaten in their last three outings, with two wins and a draw, showcasing solid defensive organization and confidence on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met twice recently. On October 2, 2026, Uganda won 2-0 in Congo DR. In June 2023, Congo DR won 1-0 at home. The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced with one win each and no draws. The quick rematch adds an intriguing dynamic to this prediction.

Win Probability: Congo DR or Uganda?

We calculate the win probabilities using bookmaker odds as a base and adjusting for recent form and head-to-head results. The normalized implied probabilities from the odds (home 1.89, draw 3.63, away 4.70) give Congo DR a 52% chance, draw 27%, and Uganda 21%. However, Uganda's dominant 2-0 victory just three days ago and their unbeaten run in the last three matches lower Congo DR's advantage. After adjustment, we estimate: Congo DR win: 48%, Draw: 28%, Uganda win: 24%. Congo DR remains the favorite, but the match is more open than the odds suggest.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer a home win at 1.89, a draw at 3.63, and an away win at 4.70. Odds vary slightly across bookmakers, with home win odds ranging from 1.77 to 1.89, draw odds from 2.05 to 3.63, and away win odds from 3.80 to 4.75. These odds reflect Congo DR's home advantage and overall squad strength. However, the recent head-to-head result and Uganda's solid form indicate value in the draw or away win. As a Friendly International, both teams may experiment with lineups, adding uncertainty. Our Congo DR vs Uganda prediction is a closely contested friendly. Based on the stats, a low-scoring affair is likely, with a 1-1 draw or a narrow win for either side. The safest betting tip might be under 2.5 goals or the double chance X2.